The ping-pong balls finally bounced the right way for the South Side. After a 2025 season that mostly felt like a slow-motion car crash, the Chicago White Sox secured the top spot in the 2026 MLB draft order. They had the best odds going in—about 27.73%—and for the first time in the four-year history of the lottery, the "favorite" actually took home the prize.
It’s about time.
If you're a Rockies fan, though, you're probably throwing your remote. Colorado lost 119 games last year. In any other era of baseball, that’s a guaranteed ticket to the first pick. But because of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement rules, which prevent "big market" or "payor" teams from staying in the lottery too long, the Rockies were ineligible for a top-six pick. They’re stuck at No. 10. That's gotta sting.
The 2026 MLB Draft Order: The Top 10 Locked In
The lottery, held during the Winter Meetings in Orlando back in December, shook up the top of the board quite a bit. The biggest winners were easily the Tampa Bay Rays and the San Francisco Giants. Tampa vaulted from the seventh-best odds all the way to No. 2. San Francisco jumped from No. 12 to No. 4.
When you move up that far, you aren't just getting a better player; you're getting a massive hike in your signing bonus pool. We're talking millions of dollars in extra leverage to sign tough-to-get high schoolers later in the draft.
- Chicago White Sox
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Minnesota Twins
- San Francisco Giants
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Kansas City Royals
- Baltimore Orioles
- Oakland Athletics
- Atlanta Braves
- Colorado Rockies
The Twins and Pirates rounding out the top five is interesting because both teams were actually somewhat competitive at points last year. Now they get to add elite talent. Minnesota, specifically, had a 22.2% chance at the top pick but "fell" to third. Still, in a draft class this deep, that's a huge win.
Why the Lottery Screwed the "Big Spenders"
You've probably noticed some famous names missing from the very top. The "Blue Bloods" of the league—the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, and Blue Jays—all got hit with the "surcharge penalty." Basically, if you spend way over the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold, MLB moves your first-round pick back 10 spots.
Unless you're the Mets.
The Mets are in a weird spot. They also exceeded the threshold, but the rule says if you land a top-six pick via the lottery, you keep it, and your second pick gets pushed back instead. Since the Mets didn't move into the top six, their first pick (which would have been around 17) got shoved down to No. 27.
The Yankees and Phillies were pushed entirely out of the first round. Their "first" selections will now happen at No. 35 and No. 36, respectively. It's a brutal price to pay for a high payroll, but that’s the system the owners and players agreed on to keep things "fair."
Who are these teams actually looking at?
Everyone is talking about Roch Cholowsky. He’s the shortstop out of UCLA who basically looks like a clone of Troy Tulowitzki but maybe with a better hit tool. He’s the consensus No. 1 right now. If the White Sox don't take him, something went very wrong in their scouting department.
But don't sleep on the high school kids. Grady Emerson is a shortstop from Texas who some scouts think has a higher ceiling than Cholowsky. He’s got that "twitchy" athleticism that makes front offices drool. Then there’s Jacob Lombard. His brother George is already a top prospect for the Yankees, and the bloodlines are clearly elite.
The 2026 class is incredibly heavy on shortstops. Honestly, you could see five or six shortstops go in the first ten picks. Most of them will eventually move to third base or center field, but you draft the athlete and figure out the position later.
The Pitching Gap
College pitching is a bit of a question mark this year. Cameron Flukey from Coastal Carolina and Liam Peterson from Florida are the big names, but they haven't quite reached that "slam dunk" status yet. If you're the Royals at No. 6, do you take the best pitcher available or grab another high-upside bat? Usually, the bat wins.
Key Dates and What Happens Next
The draft will go down in Philadelphia during All-Star Week, specifically July 12–13. It’s going to be a madhouse in Philly.
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Between now and then, the order can still shift slightly based on "Prospect Promotion Incentive" picks. For example, the Atlanta Braves already locked in an extra pick (No. 26) because Drake Baldwin won the NL Rookie of the Year. The Astros also picked up a boost because Hunter Brown finished in the top three for the Cy Young.
These "extra" picks are why the first round isn't just 30 picks anymore. It’s a moving target.
Actionable Insights for Fans:
- Watch the Spring Season: Keep an eye on UCLA and Georgia Tech. Cholowsky (UCLA) and Drew Burress (GT) are the two names that will define the top five.
- Monitor the Compensation Picks: If big-name free agents like Zac Gallen sign elsewhere for more than $50 million, the Diamondbacks will get a pick between the first round and Comp Round A. This changes the "slot value" for everyone below them.
- Ignore the "Mocks" until May: Baseball mock drafts are notoriously useless until the college conference tournaments start. One elbow injury or one slump can tank a player's stock by 20 spots.
The White Sox have a golden opportunity here. They haven't had the No. 1 pick since they took Harold Baines in 1977. If they nail this, the rebuild might actually have a finish line in sight. If they miss? Well, it’s going to be a very long decade in Chicago.