College football is weird. One minute you’re watching a kid from Indiana named Fernando Mendoza hoist the most famous stiff-arm trophy in sports, and the next, everyone is already screaming about who’s next. Honestly, the 2025 season felt like a fever dream. If you had told me a year ago that a Hoosier quarterback would beat out the blue bloods to win it all, I would’ve told you to check your thermostat.
But here we are. It is January 2026. The ink on the 2025 ballots is barely dry, and the heisman award watch list for 2026 is already causing absolute chaos in the betting markets.
The transition from the "Mendoza Era" to whatever 2026 becomes is fascinating because the power dynamic has shifted. We aren't just looking at the same old faces. Some of the biggest names in the sport are back, but there are also a few transfers and sophomores ready to break the internet.
Why the 2026 Heisman Award Watch List Starts in Austin
You can’t talk about this award without talking about the name. Arch Manning.
It’s almost a cliché at this point, right? But the reality is that Manning's 2025 season was a massive "I told you so" to the critics who called him a benchwarmer early on. He finished with 33 total touchdowns and over 3,100 yards of offense. Most people forget how rough his September was, but by the time the Longhorns played the Citrus Bowl against Michigan, he looked like a different human being.
Arch is currently the betting favorite at +750. That isn't just because his uncle is Peyton; it's because Texas just landed Cam Coleman, the top receiver in the portal. If Manning has a legit WR1 like Coleman, his stats could go nuclear.
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The Buckeyes Are Double-Dipping
Ohio State is doing that thing again where they have too much talent for their own good.
Julian Sayin is the "safe" bet. He was a finalist in 2025 as a redshirt freshman—the only one not eligible for the NFL draft this year. He’s basically a surgeon with a football. He finished 2025 with a 78.4% completion rate. That is literally a record.
But then there’s Jeremiah Smith.
Kinda crazy that a wide receiver finished 6th in the voting last year, isn't it? Smith is basically a Madden create-a-player. He had 156 catches for 2,401 yards and 26 touchdowns over the last two seasons. If he stays healthy, he’s the first receiver since DeVonta Smith with a real shot to actually win the thing. The only problem? He and Sayin might split the vote. It’s hard to win the Heisman when your own teammate is also a superstar.
The Big Ten’s New Identity
With Indiana winning the trophy last year, the Big Ten isn't just "three yards and a cloud of dust" anymore. It’s a quarterback league now.
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- CJ Carr (Notre Dame): He’s sitting right behind Manning in the odds at +800. The Irish have been desperate for a transformative QB, and Carr looked like the real deal toward the end of '25.
- Dante Moore (Oregon): Moore decided to skip the NFL draft and head back to Eugene. That’s a massive win for Dan Lanning. Moore threw for 24 touchdowns last year, but he needs to cut down on the picks if he wants to move up the heisman award watch list rankings.
- Jayden Maiava (USC): Lincoln Riley is a Heisman factory. Maiava threw for over 3,400 yards last year. If USC actually plays defense in 2026, he’ll be in New York. Simple as that.
SEC Chaos: Reed and Stockton
Down south, it’s a total dogfight. Marcel Reed at Texas A&M is the name everyone is circling. He’s a dual-threat nightmare. 2,932 passing yards and 466 rushing yards in 2025 is a great baseline. If he can survive the new coaching staff changes in College Station, he’s a top-five contender.
Then you’ve got Gunner Stockton at Georgia. He isn’t flashy. He doesn't have the Manning hype. But he wins. He had a 162.2 QB rating against Top 25 teams last year, which was the best in the country. Kirby Smart trusts him, and that’s usually enough to get a guy into the conversation.
The Dark Horses You Aren't Tracking (But Should)
Everyone loves a long shot. Remember when Fernando Mendoza was +5000? Exactly.
Keep an eye on Ahmad Hardy at Missouri. He led the SEC in rushing with over 1,500 yards. In a world where everyone is obsessed with quarterbacks, Hardy is a throwback who just punishes people. If Mizzou makes a playoff run, he becomes the "workhorse" narrative that voters love.
And don't sleep on Demond Williams Jr. at Washington. Joel Klatt has been banging the drum for him all offseason. He’s electric. He had 3,000 passing yards and over 600 rushing yards last year. In that Washington system, those numbers could easily jump to 4,000 and 1,000.
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The Transfer Portal Variable
We also have to talk about Drew Mestemaker. He led the FBS in passing yards at North Texas (over 4,100 yards!). Now, he’s the most coveted arm in the portal. If he lands at a place like Oklahoma State or even replaces Mendoza at Indiana, he’s an instant Heisman threat.
The 2026 heisman award watch list is basically a moving target until the portal officially closes.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season
If you're following the race this year, keep these three things in mind:
- Watch the Completion Percentage: Julian Sayin’s 78% mark is the new gold standard. Voters are moving away from raw yardage and looking for efficiency. If a QB is hovering around 65%, they’re probably falling behind.
- Team Success Matters More Than Ever: In the 12-team playoff era, you basically have to be on a playoff-bound team to stay in the Heisman conversation through November. If Texas A&M or USC falls out of the top 15 early, their QBs are done.
- The "Name" Tax: Arch Manning will always have lower odds than his stats might suggest because of his last name. If you're looking for value, look at guys like Gunner Stockton or Ahmad Hardy, who have the talent but lack the social media following.
The road to New York starts now. It's going to be a long, weird season, but that’s why we watch. Check the schedules, keep an eye on the injury reports, and don't be surprised if another "nobody" from the Big Ten ends up holding the trophy in December.
To stay ahead of the curve, track the early season matchups like Ohio State at Texas and Georgia at Alabama; these games usually act as the first "elimination" rounds for the Heisman race.