Honestly, the sheer volume of political mailers about to hit your mailbox in a few months is going to be staggering. It happens every two years like clockwork. But 2026 is shaping up to be a bit of a weird one. Since we're officially in the "midterm" cycle of President Trump’s second term—the first time we've seen a non-consecutive second-term midterm since the late 1800s—the stakes feel heavier than usual.
Basically, the question everyone asks is: how many congressional seats are up for reelection in 2026?
The short answer is: all of them in the House, and about a third of them in the Senate.
But if you want the actual numbers, we are looking at 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 seats in the U.S. Senate (that’s the standard 33 Class 2 seats plus two special elections).
The House: All 435 Seats are on the Line
In the House, nobody is safe. Every single one of the 435 voting members has to defend their seat every two years. It’s a constant state of campaigning that most of us would find exhausting, but for them, it’s just Tuesday.
Right now, Republicans hold a slim majority. We’re talking 218 Republicans to 213 Democrats, with a handful of vacancies usually peppered in due to resignations or, sadly, deaths. For the Democrats to take back the gavel, they basically only need a net gain of three to five seats. In a country this divided, that’s practically a coin flip.
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Why the House Map is Messy This Year
It isn't just about the numbers; it's about the lines. Several states are heading into 2026 with new maps.
- Ohio and Utah: Court-mandated redistricting has changed the field here.
- California: They’ve got some map tweaks following the passage of Prop 50.
- The Retirements: As of early 2026, we’ve already seen high-profile exits. Nancy Pelosi is finally stepping away in California’s 11th. Steny Hoyer in Maryland and Elise Stefanik in New York (who moved to an administration role) have also left gaps.
When an incumbent retires, the seat becomes an "open" race. These are much easier to flip. Currently, around 47 representatives have already said they aren’t coming back. Some are just tired; others are eyeing a promotion to the Senate or a Governor’s mansion.
The Senate: The 35 Seats That Matter
The Senate is a different beast. Senators serve six-year terms, so only about a third of the chamber is up for grabs at any given time. In 2026, we are looking at the Class 2 seats.
There are 33 regularly scheduled races, but the total is 35 because of special elections. Specifically, we have to fill the remaining years of terms for seats vacated by Marco Rubio in Florida and J.D. Vance in Ohio after they moved into executive roles.
The Partisan Split in the Senate
The math here is a bit harder for Democrats. Out of those 35 seats:
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- 22 are currently held by Republicans.
- 13 are held by Democrats (or Independents who caucus with them).
On paper, that looks like Republicans have more to lose. They have more "exposed" seats. However, a lot of those Republican seats are in "deep red" territory—places like Alabama (Tommy Tuberville), Idaho (Jim Risch), and Wyoming (Cynthia Lummis).
The real battles? Look at places like Georgia (Jon Ossoff’s seat), Michigan (Gary Peters), and North Carolina (Thom Tillis). These are the "purple" spots where millions of dollars in ad spend will likely melt your television.
The "Second Term" Midterm Curse
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats during the midterms. It’s a tale as old as time. Voters get a bit of "buyer’s remorse" or the opposition party gets highly energized.
Because 2026 is the middle of Trump’s second term, the GOP is looking at a historical headwind. Since 2025, poll aggregators like RealClearPolitics and Decision Desk HQ have actually shown Democrats with a slight lead in the generic congressional ballot—roughly 4.6%.
But polls this far out are... well, they’re just guesses. A lot can happen with the economy or global events before November.
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Beyond the Big Numbers: The Non-Voting Members
We often forget that Congress isn't just the 535 people from the 50 states. There are also delegates from territories. In 2026, five out of the six non-voting members are up for election. This includes folks from DC, Guam, American Samoa, and the Virgin Islands. They can't vote on final bills, but they carry a lot of weight in committees.
Actionable Steps for the 2026 Cycle
If you’re trying to keep track of this without losing your mind, here is what you should actually do:
- Check Your District: Redistricting is real. Your "safe" representative might have changed because a line moved three blocks over. Use a tool like Ballotpedia or your local Secretary of State website to confirm your 2026 district.
- Watch the Primaries: In many "safe" districts, the real election happens in the spring or summer during the primary. If you wait until November, the choice might already be made for you.
- Follow the Money: Sites like OpenSecrets show who is funding these 2026 runs. If a candidate is getting 90% of their money from out-of-state PACs, that tells you something about who they’ll actually listen to in DC.
- Monitor Retirements: Keep an eye on the "retirement tracker." Every time a veteran lawmaker quits, the odds of that seat flipping go through the roof.
The 2026 landscape is a puzzle of 435 House pieces and 35 Senate pieces. While the big-picture numbers are set, the actual faces in those seats are very much up for debate.
Next Steps
To get a better handle on your specific area, you can look up your current representative’s voting record on the Clerk of the House website. This helps you decide if they actually deserve one of those 435 seats for another two years.