Honestly, walking into the 2026 CA governor race right now feels a bit like walking into a crowded party where everyone is yelling but nobody is actually dancing yet. Gavin Newsom is packing his bags for a potential 2028 presidential run, and that leaves the most populous state in the union up for grabs.
It's weird.
Usually, by this point, we have a clear frontrunner—some political titan everyone is chasing. But look at the polls from December 2025 and January 2026. Nobody is cracking 15%. Not one person. About 31% to 44% of voters are basically shrugging their shoulders and telling pollsters, "I have no idea who these people are."
If you're feeling out of the loop, you're actually in the majority.
The Democratic Civil War: Whiteboards, Billions, and Baggage
The Democrats have a math problem. There are about a dozen of them running, which sounds like a healthy democracy until you realize they might just cannibalize each other’s votes.
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Katie Porter is probably the name you know best. She’s the one who became a viral sensation for using a whiteboard to shred corporate executives in Congress. But she’s had a rough few months. Late in 2025, some leaked videos showed her being less-than-kind to a staffer on Zoom, and another showed her trying to dodge a reporter’s questions about needing Republican votes. Her favorability is sitting around 30%, but her "unfavorable" rating is right there at 34%.
Then you have Eric Swalwell. He jumped in late, around December 2025, and immediately started eating into Porter's support. In the latest Emerson College poll, he’s tied with her at about 12%. He’s leaning hard into his "anti-Trump" reputation, which usually plays well in California, but he's also dealing with some headaches over his mortgage being scrutinized by his opponents.
The Rest of the Blue Crowd
- Xavier Becerra: The former HHS Secretary is struggling. His campaign was hit by a weird proxy scandal involving his former chief of staff, Sean McCluskie, who pleaded guilty to stealing money from a dormant campaign account. Becerra wasn't accused of anything, but 8% in the polls isn't exactly a victory lap.
- Tom Steyer: The billionaire climate activist is back. He’s spending a ton of his own money on ads, trying to position himself as a "populist" outsider. It worked for Trump in a way, but can it work for a San Francisco hedge fund guy?
- Antonio Villaraigosa: The former L.A. Mayor is playing the moderate card. He’s talking about crime and police funding, hoping to grab the voters who think California has moved too far left.
The Republican "Cowboy" Strategy
Here’s where it gets interesting. Because the Democrats are so split, the Republicans actually have a shot at making the November runoff. In California’s "top-two" primary, the two people with the most votes move on, regardless of party.
Chad Bianco is currently leading the pack for the GOP. He’s the Riverside County Sheriff, he wears a cowboy hat, and he hates—absolutely hates—California’s sanctuary laws. He’s polling at 13%, which is technically the top of the pile.
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Steve Hilton, the former Fox News host and advisor to David Cameron, is right behind him at 12%. Hilton is trying to be the "idea guy," talking about making single-family homes affordable again. He’s got the MAGA-adjacent "Make California Golden Again" slogan, but he’s definitely more of a policy wonk than a firebrand sheriff.
The danger for Republicans? If a third candidate like Jon Slevat takes even 3% of the GOP vote, they might split the conservative base so thin that two Democrats end up on the November ballot. Again.
What People Actually Care About (Spoiler: It’s the Rent)
Politics aside, the 2026 CA governor race is going to be won or lost on three things that make living in California a headache:
- Housing: Tony Thurmond, the State Superintendent, wants to build 2 million units on state land. It’s a bold goal, but voters are skeptical. Most people just want to know why a 1-bedroom apartment in Fresno costs as much as a mortgage in Texas.
- Insurance: This is the "sleeper" issue. If you live in a fire zone, your home insurance has probably tripled—or been canceled. Newsom signed some last-minute laws in late 2025 to stabilize the FAIR Plan, but the candidates are being grilled on how to bring private insurers back to the state.
- Crime: Retail theft is the visual that won't go away. Even though organized retail crime investigations are reportedly up 31x, the perception of "lawlessness" is a massive gift to candidates like Bianco and Villaraigosa.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Cycle
If you want to actually track this thing without losing your mind, don't look at the national headlines. Look at the fundraising.
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Check the "War Chests": In California, you need about $50 million to run a serious statewide campaign. Watch the California Secretary of State’s website for "Power Searches" on campaign finance. If a candidate isn't raising $1 million a month by mid-2026, they aren't a real factor.
The Endorsement Pivot: Keep an eye on the "Withdrawn" list. Big names like Eleni Kounalakis and Toni Atkins dropped out. Where their supporters go matters. If the Newsom wing of the party coalesces around one person—say, a late entry like Rob Bonta—the race changes overnight.
Primary Date: Mark June 2026 on your calendar. Because of the top-two system, the "real" election usually happens in the summer. If two Democrats make it through, the November election becomes a fight for the "center." If a Republican makes it, it becomes a traditional ideological brawl.
Next Step: Search for the "Official Voter Information Guide" from the Secretary of State as we get closer to the June primary to see the specific ballot measures that will drive turnout for these candidates.