Politics in Wisconsin is basically a contact sport. By the time April 1, 2025, rolled around, every resident with a TV or a mailbox felt like they’d been through a fifteen-round heavyweight fight. We saw the most expensive judicial race in the history of the United States. Over $100 million spent. That's a lot of money for a "nonpartisan" seat.
People were constantly refreshing their feeds for 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court election polls to see if Brad Schimel or Susan Crawford would take the lead. Honestly, the numbers were all over the map. One week Schimel was up by five points. The next, Crawford was leading by four. It felt like nobody actually knew what was going to happen until the first batches of votes from Dane and Milwaukee counties started hitting the wires.
The Wild Swing of 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court Election Polls
Early on, things looked pretty grim for the liberal side. Back in January 2025, a poll from the Institute for Reforming Government had Brad Schimel leading Susan Crawford 40% to 35%. You’ve got to remember that at that point, about 23% of voters were still undecided. That's a massive chunk of people who hadn't made up their minds.
As we got closer to the spring, the momentum shifted. By late February, RMG Research showed Crawford pulling ahead with 44% compared to Schimel’s 40%. Still, the margin of error was $± 3.5%$, meaning it was technically a toss-up.
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Late March Confusion
The final week was pure chaos. AtlasIntel put out a poll just days before the election showing Crawford at 53% and Schimel at 46%. Meanwhile, some Republican-aligned pollsters like Trafalgar Group were whispering that it was a dead heat, maybe even a 51-49 split.
When the actual results came in, Crawford didn't just win; she dominated. She pulled in 55% of the vote to Schimel's 44.9%. That 10-point gap was way outside what most of the mid-tier polls were predicting. It turns out, the "undecideds" weren't actually undecided. They were just waiting to vote against the status quo.
The Musk Factor and the Money
You can't talk about this election without mentioning Elon Musk. He basically became the unofficial third candidate. Musk’s America PAC poured over $21 million into the state. He was even doing rallies in Green Bay and handing out million-dollar checks to voters.
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Crawford used this. She literally called him "Elon Schimel" during the March 12 debate. It was a smart move. It turned the race from a boring legal argument into a fight about "out-of-state billionaires" trying to buy a Wisconsin court. For a lot of middle-of-the-road voters, that was the breaking point.
- Susan Crawford: Backed by the Democratic Party, Planned Parenthood, and the four sitting liberal justices.
- Brad Schimel: Former Attorney General, endorsed by Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and groups like Americans for Prosperity.
Why the Polls Struggled to Get it Right
Polling is hard. In a state like Wisconsin, it’s nearly impossible. The "Trump effect" in the 2024 election had pollsters terrified of undercounting conservative voters. This led many to "weight" their 2025 data in a way that likely overrepresented Schimel’s support.
Also, turnout was insane. Over 52% of the voting-age population showed up. For a spring election, that’s unheard of. Usually, you’re lucky to get 35%. When turnout hits those levels, the traditional "likely voter" models used by pollsters start to fall apart. Young voters and women in the "WOW" counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington) turned out in numbers that the 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court election polls just didn't catch in time.
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Key Issues That Drove the Gap
- Abortion Rights: This was the big one. Crawford leaned hard into the 1849 ban.
- Act 10: The collective bargaining rights for teachers and public workers were back on the table.
- Redistricting: Everyone knew the winner would decide the fate of the state’s congressional maps.
What This Means for the Future
With Crawford's victory, the liberal 4-3 majority is safe until at least 2028. She was sworn in on August 1, 2025, taking the seat of retiring Justice Ann Walsh Bradley. This means the court is likely to take a very different look at things like voter ID laws and environmental regulations over the next few years.
If you’re looking at the 2026 cycle, keep an eye on Justice Rebecca Bradley's seat. That’s the next big battleground. The lesson from 2025 is simple: don't trust the early polls. They missed the surge of energy on the ground, and they definitely missed how much Wisconsinites hate being told how to vote by billionaires from California or Texas.
To stay ahead of the next cycle, start by checking the official Wisconsin Elections Commission site for voter registration status. If you're interested in the legal side, you should read the full transcript of the March 12 debate at Marquette Law School to see exactly how the candidates differ on Act 10 and redistricting.
Next Steps for You:
- Verify your registration: Visit MyVote WI to ensure your address is current for the 2026 judicial primaries.
- Review the maps: Look up the "Wisconsin Fair Maps" proposals currently before the court to understand how your district might change.
- Track the spending: Use OpenSecrets to see which outside groups are already starting to fund the 2026 campaigns.