NFL GMs aren't sleeping much right now. Honestly, you've probably noticed the tension if you follow any beat writers on social media. We are sitting in mid-January 2026, and the fallout from the 2025 season is just starting to settle. But the real chaos? That starts in March.
Free agency is a weird beast. It’s where teams pay for past performance hoping for future results, and most of the time, they end up overpaying for a guy who was "system-dependent." But the 2025 NFL free agent class feels different because the salary cap has ballooned to nearly $280 million. That's a lot of "funny money" for teams like the Commanders and Bears to throw around.
Let's get one thing straight: the biggest names people were panicking about last year—like Dak Prescott—are mostly off the table. Dak signed that monster $240 million extension with Dallas, and the Bengals finally locked up Tee Higgins with a four-year deal after dragging their feet for what felt like an eternity.
So, who is actually left to change the landscape?
The Pass Rushers: Where the Money Lives
If you can't hit the quarterback, you're basically toast in this league. That's why the edge rusher market for the 2025 cycle is so top-heavy.
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Trey Hendrickson is the name everyone is circling. He’s been a sack machine in Cincinnati, but with his contract hitting a void year, he’s essentially looking for one last massive payday. At 32, he’s not a "long-term" solution, but if you’re a team like the Falcons or the Lions who need that one missing piece to reach a Super Bowl, you pay the premium.
Then there’s the Khalil Mack situation. He’s 35. Normally, that’s when you’re looking at retirement or a "vet minimum" deal to ring-chase. But Mack just keeps producing. He’s an Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA), and honestly, the Chargers might struggle to keep him if a contender offers a two-year deal with heavy guarantees.
Who’s hunting for sacks?
- Josh Sweat (Eagles): At 27, he’s the "goldilocks" free agent. Young enough to build around, proven enough to lead a room.
- Haason Reddick: His time in New York has been... let's call it "eventful." He’s a UFA now and looking for a fresh start away from the drama.
- Azeez Ojulari: The Giants have a decision to make here. He hasn't been a full-time starter lately, which makes him a "buy low" candidate for a 3-4 defense.
The Quarterback "Pickle"
The 2025 QB market is kinda depressing if you’re looking for a franchise savior. It’s mostly a collection of "bridge" guys and "prove it" veterans.
Sam Darnold is the fascinator here. He went from being a draft bust punchline to an MVP candidate with the Vikings. Now, he’s hitting the market. The Vikings have J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings, but can you really let a guy walk after he just led you to 14 wins? Spotrac has his market value estimated at over $30 million a year. That’s a wild jump from where he was two years ago.
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Then there’s the Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson tier. Rodgers is 43. Wilson is 38. They’re basically mercenaries at this point. If you have a roster that is "a QB away," you might take a flyer on a one-year, $15 million deal. But nobody is building their five-year plan around these guys anymore.
Secondary Stars and Safety Values
Cornerback is always a premium position, but the safety market has been weirdly undervalued lately. Jevon Holland from the Dolphins is probably the best safety in the league that nobody talks about enough. He’s 25. He hits like a linebacker and covers like a corner. Miami is in cap hell with the Tua and Tyreek contracts, so Holland is almost certainly hitting the open market.
If your team needs a corner, keep an eye on Byron Murphy Jr. He had a career-high six interceptions last season for the Vikings. He’s 28 and has that rare ability to play both the slot and the boundary. Teams like the Packers or Lions, who are always looking to bolster their secondary, will be all over him.
Why the "Void Year" is Your New Best Friend (or Enemy)
You’re going to hear the term "void year" a lot this March. It’s basically a credit card for NFL GMs. They take a player's cap hit and push it into future years when the player isn't even on the roster anymore.
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Look at the Browns. They have guys like Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller on "void" deals. It helps them compete now, but it creates a massive "dead cap" hole later. When you look at a 2025 NFL free agent, always check if they are a "true" UFA or if they just have a voiding contract. It changes the compensatory pick math entirely.
Critical Dates to Circle
- February 18 - March 4: The Franchise Tag window. This is where the "real" free agent list gets trimmed. If a team loves a guy but can't reach a deal, they'll slap the tag on him.
- March 10: Legal Tampering begins. This is when "leaks" start happening. Usually, by the time free agency officially opens, 80% of the big deals are already done.
- March 12: The New League Year. Contracts can finally be signed.
Actionable Insights for the 2025 Offseason
If you’re a fan trying to figure out what your team should do, stop looking at the "big names" and start looking at the trenches.
The smartest move this year isn't overpaying for a 33-year-old receiver like Mike Evans. It’s finding the guys like Trey Smith (Chiefs) or Drew Dalman (Falcons). Interior offensive linemen are the "secret sauce" of the modern NFL.
Next Steps for Fans and Analysts:
- Check the Cap Space: Use sites like Over The Cap to see who actually has money. Teams like the Commanders and Patriots are sitting on $70M+ and will be the primary movers.
- Watch the Tag: If Jevon Holland gets tagged, the safety market remains stagnant. If he hits the market, expect a reset of the entire position's pay scale.
- Ignore the "Day 1" Hype: The best value is usually found on Day 3 of free agency when the "prove it" one-year deals are signed.
Free agency isn't won by the team that spends the most. It's won by the team that spends the most efficiently. We’ll see who has the stomach for it when the clock strikes 4 PM on March 12.