If you had told me three months ago that the NBA MVP race would look like this by mid-January, I probably would’ve laughed you out of the room. Seriously. We’re sitting here in 2026, looking back at a 2024-25 season that has absolutely flipped the script on every "sure thing" we thought we knew about betting favorites.
The 2025 NBA MVP odds are a total mess right now, and honestly, it’s mostly because of a rule change that’s finally biting the superstars where it hurts.
Remember the 65-game rule? It seemed like a background detail last year, but this season it’s the main character. It has basically nuked the chances of the league’s most dominant force, Nikola Jokić, and left a massive power vacuum at the top of the sportsbooks. If you’re looking at the board today, you aren’t seeing a crowded field. You’re seeing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander standing alone on a mountain while everyone else tries to figure out how to stay healthy enough to even qualify for the trophy.
The Nikola Jokić Injury That Changed Everything
It’s kinda wild to think about, but Nikola Jokić was on track for arguably the greatest individual season in the history of the sport. Before his knee hyperextension last Monday, the guy was averaging a triple-double. Not a "fake" triple-double either. We’re talking nearly 30 points, 13 rebounds, and 11 assists per game. He was the heavy, heavy favorite.
Then, one bad landing, and the 2025 NBA MVP odds shifted overnight. Because he’s likely to miss the 17-game threshold, most books have pulled him off the board entirely. It’s a bummer for basketball purists, but it’s a goldmine for anyone who tracked the rise of the "New Guard."
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: The -450 Goliath
Right now, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) isn't just the favorite; he’s basically the incumbent king who refuses to leave. After winning the award last year, he’s actually playing better now.
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SGA is currently sitting at roughly -450 odds to repeat. Those are "don’t even bother betting against him" numbers for most people. The Thunder are sitting at 34-7 at the midpoint of the season—a 68-win pace—and Shai is second in the league in scoring at 31.9 points per game. But it’s not just the buckets. He’s arguably the best two-way guard in the league. The dude just swatted Victor Wembanyama twice in one game recently. Who does that?
He’s also working on a streak of over 110 consecutive 20-point games. To put that in perspective, he’s chasing Wilt Chamberlain. It’s hard to find a flaw in his case, especially with the Thunder looking like they might actually hit 70 wins if they stay hot.
The Statistical Reality of the SGA Case:
- Scoring: 31.9 PPG (2nd in NBA)
- Efficiency: 54.8% FG, 41% 3PT (Career highs)
- Defense: Top 10 in defensive win shares and steals
- Team Success: 1st in the Western Conference
Luka Dončić in Purple and Gold?
Yeah, let’s talk about the elephant in the room. Luka Dončić playing for the Los Angeles Lakers is still a visual I haven’t quite gotten used to. But despite the jersey swap, the production is exactly what you’d expect. He’s leading the NBA in scoring at 33.7 points per game.
The 2025 NBA MVP odds have Luka at about +750 right now. Why the gap between him and Shai? Well, the Lakers are around 23-11. Good, but not "best team in the league" good. Also, the Lakers' defense with Luka, LeBron, and Austin Reaves has been... let's say "porous." Voters usually want the MVP to be the best player on a top-two team. Unless the Lakers go on a 15-game winning streak, Luka might be destined for another runner-up finish.
Sorta feels like he’s doing everything he can, but the mountain in Oklahoma City is just too high to climb this year.
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The Rise of Cade Cunningham and the Detroit Renaissance
If you told a Pistons fan two years ago that Cade Cunningham would be a top-three MVP candidate in 2026, they would’ve asked for a hit of whatever you were smoking. But here we are.
Cade has the Pistons at the top of the Eastern Conference. He’s averaging 26.7 points and 9.7 assists. He’s the reason Detroit had a 13-game win streak earlier this winter. At +2000 odds, he’s the "narrative" pick. If voters get tired of giving it to Shai, or if the Thunder stumble, Cade is the fresh face everyone is looking for.
Honestly, the fact that a Piston is in this conversation at all is the best story in the league this year.
Why These Odds Are Vulnerable
Betting on the MVP is usually about finding the guy who fits the "story" of the season. Usually, that’s the best player on the best team. But the 65-game rule has turned this into a game of "Who is left standing?"
Look at the casualty list for the 2025 NBA MVP odds so far:
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- Nikola Jokić: Likely out (Games played).
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: On the verge of disqualification due to an adductor injury.
- Jayson Tatum: Already ineligible after missing too many games early on.
- Joel Embiid: (Let's be real, we knew this was coming).
Because so many Tier-1 stars are ineligible, guys like Jaylen Brown (+4000) and Jalen Brunson (+5000) are creeping into the top five. Brown has been massive for Boston while Tatum was out, keeping them in the hunt for the 1-seed.
What You Should Actually Do With This Information
If you’re looking at these 2025 NBA MVP odds and thinking about placing a bet, you have to be cold-blooded about the schedule.
Don't look at the stats. Look at the "Games Played" column.
If Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses 10 games between now and April, his -450 odds will vanish. If Cade Cunningham stays healthy and Detroit finishes with the best record in the East, that +2000 is going to look like the steal of the century.
Your Next Steps:
- Check the Injury Reports Daily: Specifically for Shai and Cade. If Shai hits 15 games missed, the race is wide open.
- Watch the Pistons vs. Celtics Standings: If Jaylen Brown leads Boston to the #1 seed over Detroit, his +4000 odds are way too long and offer massive value.
- Ignore the Triple-Doubles: If the player isn't going to hit 65 games, the stats don't matter. They won't even be on the ballot.
The race is Shai's to lose, but in a season where a Taco Bell commercial isn't the weirdest thing happening to a superstar, anything can change in a week.