The NBA draft is always a bit of a circus. Honestly, trying to track the 2025 NBA draft order feels like doing a puzzle while someone keeps moving the pieces. Between the lottery odds, the pick swaps, and the protections that make your head spin, it’s a lot to handle.
You've probably heard people screaming about Cooper Flagg for months now. But where exactly does everyone stand right now? Let's break it down without all the corporate fluff.
Who Actually Controls the Top of the 2025 NBA Draft Order?
Right now, the race for the bottom is essentially a three-way sprint. The Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, and Charlotte Hornets are currently leading the charge for those precious 14% odds at the number one pick.
It's a weird year.
Usually, you have one team that is clearly "tanking" harder than the rest. This season? It's a collective effort. The New Orleans Pelicans are also hovering right there in the mix, which is wild considering where people expected them to be.
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The Top 5 Lottery Odds (As of January 2026)
- Utah Jazz: 14% chance at No. 1
- Washington Wizards: 14% chance at No. 1
- Charlotte Hornets: 14% chance at No. 1
- New Orleans Pelicans: 12.5% chance at No. 1
- Philadelphia 76ers: 10.5% chance at No. 1 (Keep an eye on this one!)
That 76ers pick is actually super interesting. It's top-six protected. Basically, if the lottery balls don't go their way and they fall to seven or eight, that pick belongs to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Imagine the Thunder—already a powerhouse—adding another lottery talent just because Philly had a bad run of luck.
The Cooper Flagg Effect
Everyone wants him.
The Duke freshman isn't just a "good" prospect; he’s the kind of player that makes GMs lose sleep. He's currently averaging about 18.7 points and over 8 rebounds per game. But it’s the defense that’s scary. He’s already arguably the best defender in college basketball as a teenager.
Teams are watching the 2025 NBA draft order specifically to see if they can land him, but Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey are no consolation prizes. Harper, specifically, has been tearing it up at Rutgers. He’s a big guard who plays with a lot of poise. If a team picking at No. 2 needs a floor general, they might not even be mad about missing out on Flagg.
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Trade Deadline Chaos and Pick Swaps
The trade deadline is looming (February 5th), and that’s going to mess everything up. Again.
Look at the San Antonio Spurs. They are currently sitting on a gold mine because of the Dejounte Murray trade from years ago. They own an unprotected 2025 first-rounder from the Atlanta Hawks.
The Hawks are hovering around .500, which means that pick is currently slated to be somewhere around No. 14. But if Atlanta falls apart in the second half of the season? San Antonio could end up with two lottery picks in a draft that is considered significantly deeper than last year's.
Convoluted Picks to Watch
- Phoenix Suns to Houston: The Rockets have the right to swap with Phoenix. Considering the Suns have been battling injuries, Houston might end up moving up the 2025 NBA draft order without even losing their own games.
- Sacramento Kings to Atlanta: This one is top-12 protected. Right now, the Kings are just on the edge. If they make the playoffs, Atlanta gets the pick. If they stay in the lottery, Sacramento keeps it. It's a high-stakes game of chicken.
- Miami Heat to Oklahoma City: Another Thunder asset. This is lottery-protected, so the Heat would need to make the playoffs for it to convey this year.
Why the Order Still Matters in January
You might think it’s too early to care. You’d be wrong.
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In 2025, the depth of the class is the real story. After the "Big Three" of Flagg, Harper, and Bailey, you have guys like VJ Edgecombe and Kon Knueppel. Even if a team misses out on the top three spots in the 2025 NBA draft order, they are still looking at potential All-Stars in the 4-8 range.
Honestly, the middle of the first round is where the real value might be. Players like Noa Essengue from France or Khaman Maluach (the 7-foot-2 Duke center) could be franchise-altering pieces that fall because everyone is focused on the perimeter stars.
What to Keep an Eye On Next
If you want to track this like a pro, stop looking at the standings and start looking at the "Tankathon" simulators. But remember, the lottery doesn't care about your feelings or your team's record. It’s all about those ping-pong balls in May.
- Watch the 76ers: If they start winning, the Thunder lose a massive asset.
- Monitor the Hawks: Their performance directly dictates how much "extra" help Victor Wembanyama gets in San Antonio.
- February 5th: That’s the trade deadline. Any major move involving "first-rounders" usually means the 2025 NBA draft order is getting another facelift.
Essentially, the board we see today is a rough draft. By the time June rolls around, half these picks might have different owners. But for now, if you're a Jazz or Wizards fan, keep wearing those college jerseys on Saturdays. You're scouting your future.
To stay ahead of the curve, start watching Rutgers and Duke games specifically to see how Dylan Harper and Cooper Flagg handle double-teams. That’s usually the best indicator of how their game will translate when the NBA's spacing opens up. Also, keep a close eye on the injury reports for the bottom five teams; "rest" starts to become a very popular strategy once we hit March.