Montana just did something it hasn't done in over a century. For the first time since 1911, two Republicans represent the state in the U.S. Senate. The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana results tell a story of a political era ending—specifically the era of Jon Tester.
Honestly, it wasn't even as close as some pundits predicted in the final weeks. Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and businessman, didn't just win; he cleared the field by about seven percentage points.
The Final Numbers
When the dust settled and the Montana Secretary of State certified the count, the map looked very red.
Tim Sheehy (R) pulled in 319,682 votes, which equals 52.6% of the total.
Jon Tester (D), the three-term incumbent who practically defined "moderate Montana Democrat," finished with 276,305 votes or 45.5%.
The rest of the pie was split between Libertarian Sid Daoud (1.2%) and Green Party candidate Robert Barb (0.7%). Turnout was massive. We're talking 76.57% of registered voters showing up. In a state where people take their independence seriously, that kind of engagement is wild.
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Why Jon Tester Lost the 2024 United States Senate Election in Montana
You've probably heard the "three-fingered dirt farmer" narrative. Tester leaned hard into his identity as a real-deal Montanan who still works his land in Big Sandy. It worked for 18 years. But this time, the "nationalization" of the race was too much to overcome.
Republicans basically tied Tester to the national Democratic platform every single day. They called him a rubber stamp for the administration. Even though Tester outperformed the top of his ticket—he got about 44,000 more votes than the Democratic presidential candidate—it wasn't enough to bridge the gap.
Sheehy, on the other hand, was the "outsider." He founded Bridger Aerospace and moved to Montana about a decade ago. Democrats tried to paint him as a "carpetbagger," a wealthy newcomer buying his way in. They pointed to questions about his military records and business dealings. Clearly, those attacks didn't land hard enough.
The County Breakdown: Where it was Won
Tester did manage to win six counties that also went for the Republican presidential candidate. These included:
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- Big Horn
- Blaine
- Hill
- Lewis & Clark (Helena)
- Roosevelt
- Park
But Sheehy dominated the rural areas. He won 29 rural counties and 27 suburban ones. The massive margins in places like Flathead and Yellowstone counties effectively drowned out Tester’s strength in the college towns and the state capital.
Money and Influence
This was the most expensive race in Montana history. Period. Tester raised a staggering $88 million, while Sheehy raised about $26 million.
Think about that. The incumbent outspent the challenger nearly 4-to-1 and still lost. It proves that in the current political climate, money can only buy so much "brand" protection when the national tide is moving in the opposite direction.
What This Means for the Senate
By flipping this seat, Republicans essentially guaranteed their control over the upper chamber. It wasn't just about Montana; it was about the path to 51. With West Virginia already a lock for the GOP after Joe Manchin’s retirement, Montana became the "must-win" for both sides.
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The Impact on Montana's Future
Now that the 2024 United States Senate election in Montana results are official, the shift in representation will be felt immediately. Sheehy campaigned on a platform of:
- Tightening border security.
- Increasing domestic energy production (coal and gas).
- Reducing federal spending to combat inflation.
He replaces a man who sat on the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee and chaired the Veterans' Affairs Committee. That's a lot of seniority and "clout" for Montana to lose in one go. Whether Sheehy can build that kind of influence as a freshman remains the big question for 2026 and beyond.
Actionable Insights for Voters and Analysts
If you're looking at these results and wondering what's next, keep an eye on these specific indicators over the coming months:
- Watch the Voting Record: Compare Sheehy’s first 100 days of votes against the "moderate" path Tester took. This will show how much the state's representation has truly shifted toward the national GOP line.
- Monitor the Primary System: There was a failed push for a "top-two" primary system in Montana before this election. Given how these results shook out, expect renewed debate on how Montana picks its candidates.
- Track Federal Funding: With Tester gone, watch how federal grants for Montana agriculture and veterans' services change. Tester was known for "bringing home the bacon" through his committee assignments.
- Analyze the "New Resident" Factor: Look at the voter registration data in high-growth counties like Flathead. The influx of new residents appears to be leaning heavily Republican, fundamentally changing the "Purple Montana" myth.
The era of the "Split-Ticket Montanan" might not be dead, but it's definitely on life support.