Everyone knew it would be tight. Seriously, if you spent any time in the Badger State during the fall of 2024, you couldn't escape the feeling that the entire world was staring at a few counties in southeastern Wisconsin. The 2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin polls predicted a razor-thin margin, and boy, did the actual results deliver on that tension.
Donald Trump flipped the state back into the Republican column by a margin of roughly 29,000 votes. That is less than 1% of the total ballots cast. In a state with over 3.4 million voters, the outcome was decided by a group of people that could barely fill half of Lambeau Field.
What the 2024 United States Presidential Election in Wisconsin Polls Actually Said
If you look back at the final week of the campaign, the polling was almost comically split. You had the Marquette Law School Poll—basically the gold standard for Wisconsin—showing Kamala Harris with a tiny 1-point lead (50% to 49%) in its final October 31 release. Meanwhile, other aggregators like The Hill/DDHQ had Trump up by about 0.3%.
It was a toss-up in every sense of the word.
- Marquette Law School Poll (Final): Harris 50%, Trump 49%
- AtlasIntel (Final): Trump 50%, Harris 49%
- New York Times/Siena: Harris 49%, Trump 47%
- Emerson College: 49% to 49% (Dead heat)
The reality? The polls weren't "wrong" in a massive way like 2016, but they definitely missed the late-breaking momentum Trump had in rural areas and among men.
The Gender and Education Chasm
One thing the 2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin polls caught early was the massive divide between how men and women were voting. In the final Marquette data, women in the suburbs favored Harris by 18 points. On the flip side, suburban men backed Trump by 21 points.
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That is a 39-point swing within the same neighborhoods. It's wild to think about.
Education played a huge role too. If you were a woman with a college degree in Wisconsin, there was a 36-point chance you were voting for Harris. If you were a man without a college degree, you likely went for Trump by a 20-point margin. These weren't just differences in opinion; they were two completely different visions of the country living side-by-side in places like Waukesha or Kenosha.
Why the Margin Was Closer Than 2020
In 2020, Joe Biden won Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes. In 2024, Trump won it by about 29,000. It’s almost eerie how consistent the margins are in this state.
So what changed?
Basically, Trump ran up the score in rural "Red" Wisconsin. While Harris actually improved slightly in the "WOW" counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington) compared to past Democrats, it wasn't enough to offset the red shift in places like Marathon and Wood counties.
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Honestly, the economy was the sledgehammer that broke the "Blue Wall." Even though Harris had a massive field operation and more money, she couldn't outrun the price of eggs and gas. Poll after poll showed that voters trusted Trump more on the economy by a significant margin. When people feel like they’re struggling, they vote for change. Simple as that.
Surprising Shifts in the WOW Counties
The WOW counties have long been the heart of the Wisconsin GOP. But in 2024, we saw Ozaukee and Waukesha continue a slow drift toward the center. Trump still won them, obviously—he took Waukesha by 20 points—but that's a far cry from the 30 or 40-point margins Republicans used to bank on there.
Third-Party Spoilers and Late Decisions
There was a lot of talk about Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the Green Party. In the final 2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin polls, about 9% of voters said they were looking at third-party candidates or were undecided.
Most of those people eventually picked a side.
In Wisconsin, the Green Party was on the ballot after being absent in 2020. They took a small but notable slice of the vote. When you're losing a state by 29,000 votes, every few thousand votes for a third party feels like a gut punch to the losing side.
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What This Means for 2026 and Beyond
Wisconsin is still the ultimate "50/50" state. Even with Trump winning the top of the ticket, Democrat Tammy Baldwin managed to hold onto her Senate seat, defeating Eric Hovde by about 25,000 votes.
This means a significant number of Wisconsinites voted for Donald Trump and Tammy Baldwin on the same ballot. It's the first time since 1968 that the state picked a President and a Senator from different parties.
Actionable Insights for the Future:
- Watch the Suburbs: The shift in Ozaukee and Waukesha isn't a fluke. If Republicans continue to lose ground here, they have to win rural areas by even more impossible margins.
- The Economy is King: No amount of "ground game" or TV ads can overcome a voter's frustration with their bank account.
- Late Deciders Matter: Just like 2016, those who decided in the final 48 hours in Wisconsin seemed to lean toward the "change" candidate.
If you’re looking to get involved or stay informed on the next cycle, the best thing you can do is follow the Wisconsin Elections Commission for official data. Also, keep an eye on the Marquette Law School Poll website; they release deep-dive "crosstabs" that explain why people voted the way they did, which is usually more interesting than the horse race numbers anyway.
Don't just look at the topline percentage. Look at the education and age splits. That is where the real story of Wisconsin is hidden.