Tennessee isn't exactly a "swing state" anymore, is it? Honestly, if you were looking for high-stakes drama on election night, the 2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee probably wasn’t the first place you tuned in. The Associated Press called the race for Donald Trump basically the second the polls closed at 8 p.m. ET.
But looking at the raw numbers tells a much more interesting story than just "red state stays red."
Nearly 3.1 million Tennesseans showed up. That is a massive number. Secretary of State Tre Hargett confirmed it was a record-breaking turnout, even if the percentage of eligible voters—about 64%—dipped slightly from the 2020 peak. People were motivated. You had 1.96 million folks voting for Trump and about 1.05 million for Kamala Harris. That 29.7% margin is actually a bigger blowout than what we saw in 2020 or 2016.
The Red Wall Got Taller
Usually, you expect some kind of "reversion to the mean," but Trump actually did better this time around in the Volunteer State. In 2020, he won by about 23 points. This time? Almost 30.
If you look at the map, it’s a sea of deep red with a few blue islands. Trump swept 92 of the state's 95 counties. That is a staggering level of dominance. He didn’t just win the rural areas; he crushed them, often taking 80% or more of the vote in places like Wayne or Hancock counties.
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Where Democrats Held the Line
It wasn’t a total shutout, though. Kamala Harris kept the traditional Democratic strongholds:
- Davidson County (Nashville): Still very blue, though the margins weren't enough to tilt the state.
- Shelby County (Memphis): The biggest source of Democratic votes in the state.
- Haywood County: This is often the "forgotten" blue county in West Tennessee, but it held its streak.
What’s kinda wild is how the "middle" is disappearing. Suburbs that used to be somewhat competitive, like Williamson or Rutherford, are still leaning Republican, though the margins there are always worth watching for long-term trends. In 2024, the "red wave" within the state essentially pushed back against any creeping "blue-ification" of the Nashville suburbs.
Why 2024 United States Presidential Election in Tennessee Felt Different
Early voting was the name of the game this year. Over 2.1 million people didn't even wait for Election Day. They stood in lines at libraries and community centers weeks in advance.
The issues driving people to the polls weren't exactly a secret. According to AP VoteCast data, about 42% of Tennessee voters said the economy was their number one concern. Immigration followed at 24%. When you have two-thirds of your electorate focused on those two specific things, and they perceive one candidate as stronger on those fronts, the result is basically baked in.
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The Independent Factor
Remember the RFK Jr. buzz? It ended up being more of a whisper in Tennessee. He pulled about 21,535 votes, which is less than 1% of the total. Jill Stein and other third-party candidates like Jay Bowman barely made a dent. It was a two-horse race, through and through.
Even the primary season back in March gave us a hint of what was coming. Trump walked away with 77% of the Republican primary vote, while Biden (before he dropped out) took 92% of the Democratic side. The enthusiasm was always there for Trump in Tennessee; the question was just how big the final margin would be.
What about the "Helene" Factor?
You might remember the devastating flooding from Hurricane Helene that hit East Tennessee right before the election. There was a lot of worry that people in those decimated counties wouldn't be able to vote.
But honestly? Those counties actually saw higher turnout rates than the state average. Election officials moved heaven and earth—and a few polling places—to make sure those communities could cast their ballots. It was a pretty incredible feat of logistics that doesn't get enough credit.
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Looking Ahead: What Do We Do Now?
If you're a political junkie in Tennessee, the 2024 results are your new baseline. The state is more polarized than ever, with the rural-urban divide widening into a canyon.
Next Steps for Tennessee Voters:
- Check Your Registration: Even though the big one is over, local elections happen constantly. Visit GoVoteTN.gov to make sure you're set for 2026.
- Analyze the Local Shifts: Look at your specific county's data on the Secretary of State’s website. Did your neighborhood shift more than the state average?
- Engage Beyond the Ballot: If the 2024 results frustrated or elated you, remember that the most impact often happens at the school board or city council level, where turnout is usually abysmal.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee confirmed that for now, the state is a Republican fortress. But the sheer volume of new voters suggests the "quiet" parts of the state are waking up. Whether that leads to a shift or just more of the same remains the big question for the next four years.