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If you spent any time watching the news leading up to November, you probably heard that Ohio was a "done deal" for Republicans. People talk about the Buckeye State like it’s a monolith of red, especially since it’s not really the presidential swing state it used to be back in the early 2000s. But honestly, if you look at the 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Ohio, that narrative kinda falls apart.
Sure, the top-line numbers stayed the same. The GOP kept their 10 seats, and the Democrats kept their 5. But man, the drama under the surface was real. We saw margins that would make a seasoned pollster sweat, and a few "safe" incumbents who realized far too late that their seats were anything but comfortable.
The Fight for the 9th: Marcy Kaptur’s Close Shave
Basically, the biggest story of the night was Marcy Kaptur. She’s been in Congress since 1983. That’s a long time. She’s currently the longest-serving woman in House history, and for a while, it looked like that streak was toast.
The 9th District, which covers Toledo and stretches along Lake Erie, has been gerrymandered into a weird shape that makes it way more competitive than it used to be. Republican Derek Merrin gave her the fight of her life. Early in the night, it looked like Merrin might actually pull it off. In the end, Kaptur squeaked by with a margin of about 0.7%.
Wait, 0.7%?
Yeah. It was that close.
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A lot of experts think Tom Pruss, who ran as a Libertarian, acted as a bit of a spoiler here. He pulled about 4% of the vote. If those votes had gone to Merrin, Kaptur might be packing her bags right now. It just goes to show that even in a state that went comfortably for the GOP at the presidential level, individual House races are a different beast entirely.
Why the "Status Quo" is Actually Surprising
You’ve probably seen the final count: 10 Republicans, 5 Democrats. On paper, nothing changed. But you have to remember that Ohio has been through a massive legal battle over its maps. The Ohio Supreme Court threw out the maps multiple times for being unconstitutionally gerrymandered, but because of some weird timing and legal technicalities, we ended up using maps that many people still consider unfair.
The Emilia Sykes Victory
Down in the 13th District (Akron area), Emilia Sykes was supposed to be in trouble. The GOP poured a ton of money into Kevin Coughlin’s campaign. They thought they could flip this one. Sykes ended up winning by about 2.2 points. It wasn't a blowout, but in a year where the "red wave" was supposed to be crashing into the Midwest, she held the line.
Greg Landsman and the Cincinnati Shift
Then there’s the 1st District. Greg Landsman, a Democrat, won his seat in 2022 by beating long-time incumbent Steve Chabot. Most pundits thought that was a fluke. They were wrong. Landsman didn't just win; he won by about 9 points. Cincinnati is shifting, and the 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Ohio proved that the suburbs are becoming a real headache for the GOP.
The Issue 1 Factor
You can't talk about these elections without mentioning Issue 1. This was the ballot initiative to take redistricting out of the hands of politicians and give it to a citizen-led commission.
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It failed.
About 53.7% of Ohioans voted "No." It’s sort of a head-scratcher because almost everyone agrees the current system is broken. But the way the ballot language was written—using words like "establish gerrymandering"—confused a lot of people. Honestly, I think the phrasing killed it more than the actual policy did. Because it failed, the 2026 and 2028 maps are likely to look a lot like the ones we just saw.
A Quick Look at the Numbers
I won't bore you with a giant table, but here’s the gist of how the votes actually split across the state:
- Republicans grabbed about 3.1 million votes (56.5%).
- Democrats brought in about 2.3 million (43.4%).
- Total Turnout was around 71.7%. That’s nearly 5.9 million people showing up to have their say.
Interestingly, Republicans actually underperformed their presidential ticket in several districts. In the 2nd District, David Taylor outran the top of the ticket by a tiny bit, but in most other places, the House candidates were trailing behind. People were splitting their tickets, which is something we don't see as much of these days.
The Incumbent Wall
Ohio loves its incumbents. Jim Jordan (4th District) and Joyce Beatty (3rd District) won by the huge margins everyone expected. Max Miller held onto the 7th, and Shontel Brown cruised in the 11th.
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The 11th District is an interesting one. It's a Black-plurality district, and it was the strongest performing area for Democrats in the entire state. Meanwhile, the 2nd District is the exact opposite—high percentage of white voters and the strongest Republican stronghold. It's like two different worlds within the same state borders.
What This Means for 2026
So, what's next? Well, because the redistricting amendment failed, we're stuck with these maps for a bit longer.
- Watch the 9th District. Marcy Kaptur is likely to face another massive challenge in two years. The GOP knows she's vulnerable now.
- Suburban Trends. If the 1st District keeps moving blue, Republicans might have to rethink their strategy for the Cincinnati and Columbus suburbs.
- The "Spoiler" Effect. Expect both parties to be much more aggressive about who gets on the ballot as a third-party or independent candidate.
The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Ohio weren't just a repeat of the past. They showed that even in a "safe" state, things are shifting. The margins are getting thinner in the places that matter, and the fight for control is far from over.
Next Steps for Voters:
If you want to stay ahead of the curve for the 2026 midterms, keep an eye on the Ohio Secretary of State’s website for updated voter registration data. Also, look into local grassroots organizations like Citizens Not Politicians—they aren't going away just because Issue 1 failed, and they'll likely be pushing for map changes again soon.