Texas politics is usually a game of "just wait until next time" for Democrats. For a decade, the narrative was always about the sleeping giant—the massive, growing Latino population that would eventually flip the state blue. But the 2024 Texas election results didn't just break that narrative; they set it on fire and tossed it into the Gulf.
Honestly, if you were looking for a purple Texas this year, you were looking at the wrong map. Donald Trump didn't just win; he dominated. He cleared 56% of the vote, leaving Kamala Harris trailing by double digits. That hasn't happened in a presidential race here since 2012. We aren't talking about a small shift. We are talking about a 1.5 million-vote gap that made 2020 look like a fluke.
The South Texas Shockwave
The real story isn't in Dallas or Austin. It’s in places like Starr County. If you follow Texas politics, your jaw probably hit the floor when the numbers came in from the Rio Grande Valley. Starr County is 97% Latino. It hadn't voted for a Republican president since Benjamin Harrison in 1892. Let that sink in for a second. Over 130 years of Democratic loyalty evaporated in a single night.
Trump won it. He also took Maverick County, which saw a nearly 30-point swing to the right.
Why? It’s kinda simple and complicated all at once. People in the Valley care about the border, but not the way pundits in D.C. think they do. They live there. They see the chaos. They also care about the oil and gas industry, which keeps the lights on in a lot of those households. When you talk about banning fracking or transitioning away from oil, you aren't talking about "policy" to a guy in McAllen—you're talking about his mortgage.
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Cruz vs. Allred: The $160 Million Fight
Then there was the Senate race. Ted Cruz vs. Colin Allred. This was supposed to be the one. Allred was the perfect candidate on paper: a former NFL player, a moderate congressman, and a guy who knew how to raise serious cash. And he did. Between the two of them, they burned through roughly $160 million.
It was the most expensive Senate race in the country.
Cruz won by about 9 points. You’ve gotta remember that back in 2018, Beto O'Rourke came within 2.6% of unseating him. This time? It wasn't even a sweat for the Cruz camp. Allred tried to pivot to the center, especially on the border, even running ads about "building the wall" in some contexts. But it didn't stick. Cruz leaned hard into culture war issues and the economy, and in a year where inflation was the boogeyman, that was a winning hand.
The Down-Ballot Reality
It wasn't just the top of the ticket. Republicans padded their lead in the Texas House, moving to an 88-62 majority. They even flipped a Senate seat in South Texas—Adam Hinojosa took down Morgan LaMantia in a rematch that showed 2022 wasn't an accident.
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- Texas Supreme Court: All three Republican incumbents won, despite Democrats trying to make the election a referendum on the state's strict abortion laws.
- Railroad Commission: Christi Craddick cruised to reelection. If you don't live here, the "Railroad Commission" sounds boring. It’s not. They regulate oil and gas. In Texas, that’s like being the King of Energy.
- State Board of Education: Republicans kept their 10-5 majority. This matters because they’re about to overhaul the social studies curriculum, and things are going to get heated in those hearing rooms.
What Most People Get Wrong About Turnout
You’ll hear people say turnout was "historic." Well, sort of.
A record 18.6 million Texans registered to vote. That’s a massive number. But here’s the kicker: only about 61% actually showed up. That’s actually a 6% drop from 2020. People were registered, but they weren't necessarily inspired. Or maybe they were just tired.
The biggest drops in turnout happened in the big blue bastions—Harris, Dallas, and Travis counties. If Democrats can't get their base to the polls in Houston and Dallas, they can't win the state. Period. Meanwhile, the GOP base in the rural "red wall" stayed incredibly efficient.
Why "Beto-ism" Failed in 2024
There's this idea that if you just register enough new people, the state flips. But 2024 proved that many of those new residents moving from California or New York aren't the liberals people think they are. A lot of them are moving to Texas because it’s Texas. They want the lower taxes and the different regulatory environment.
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Basically, the "demographics are destiny" argument took a massive hit. You can't just look at a person's ethnicity and check a box for their vote anymore.
Actionable Insights: What This Means for 2026
If you're a political junkie or just a Texan trying to figure out what’s next, keep your eyes on these three things:
- School Vouchers are Coming: Governor Greg Abbott spent millions primaring Republicans who opposed his voucher plan. He won those battles, and with these new general election numbers, he finally has the votes. Expect a massive fight in the 89th Legislature over "school choice."
- The Border as a State Power: The 2024 Texas election results gave a mandate to the state’s aggressive border policies. SB4 and "Operation Lone Star" aren't going anywhere; if anything, they’ll be expanded.
- The Democratic Identity Crisis: Democrats have to decide if they are the party of the urban elite or if they can still talk to a rancher in Webb County. If they don't find a way to talk about the economy and energy without sounding condescending, the 2026 midterms—where John Cornyn’s seat might be up—will look just like this year.
Texas isn't purple. It isn't even "leaning" red. Right now, it’s a deep, vibrant crimson, and the 2024 results proved that the GOP's grip on the state is the strongest it's been in a generation.
To stay ahead of the next legislative session, you should monitor the Texas Secretary of State's official certification of these results and watch the appointments for the upcoming House committees. The shift in leadership in the Texas House will dictate which bills actually make it to the floor in 2025.
Next Steps for You: I can break down the specific results for your local Texas House district or provide a detailed look at the 2025 legislative calendar based on these new power dynamics.