Everyone said the 2024 class was weak. "Historical lows," they screamed. "The 2013 draft all over again." Honestly, that kind of talk happens every year when there isn’t a Victor Wembanyama or a LeBron James sitting at the top of the board. But when you look back at how the 2024 NBA mock draft season actually unfolded versus the reality of draft night, the chaos was the point.
Drafting is hard.
Predicting it is harder.
The Atlanta Hawks winning the lottery with only a 3% chance basically set the house on fire before the first mock was even published. We saw a French revolution at the top, a bunch of Kentucky guards flying all over the boards, and some massive reaches that left GMs looking like geniuses or gamblers.
The French Connection and the No. 1 Pick Debate
For months, every 2024 NBA mock draft you could find had Alex Sarr as the locked-in top pick. He had the size, the mobility, and that "unicorn" label everyone loves. But then the Atlanta Hawks threw a curveball. They went with Zaccharie Risacher.
Risacher isn't flashy. He’s a 6-foot-9 wing who hits threes and plays defense. Basically, he’s the "safe" pick in a draft where nobody felt safe. The Hawks didn't want a project; they wanted a guy who could play next to Trae Young immediately.
Sarr ended up with the Washington Wizards at No. 2. It’s a better fit for him, really. In D.C., he has the runway to mess up, shoot 20% from deep for a month, and just grow. If he had gone to Atlanta, the pressure to produce for a "win-now" team might have crushed him.
France didn't stop there, though. Tidjane Salaün went No. 6 to Charlotte. Three Frenchmen in the top ten. That’s wild. It shows that NBA scouts are looking at the LNB Elite and the NBL as much as, if not more than, the NCAA.
The Kentucky Guards: Hype vs. Reality
If you followed the 2024 NBA mock draft cycle, you knew Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham were the polarizing twins of the class.
Sheppard was the darling of the analytics community. His shooting percentages at Kentucky were stupid—over 52% from deep. The Houston Rockets snatched him at No. 3 because, let’s be real, you can’t have enough shooting. But the height? That was the debate. People worried he was too small to defend.
Then you have Rob Dillingham.
He’s electric. He’s also about 165 pounds. Most mocks had him going in the top ten, and he did—technically. The Spurs took him at No. 8 and immediately shipped him to the Minnesota Timberwolves. That was the "whoa" moment of the night. Minnesota gave up a 2031 unprotected first and a 2030 swap just to get him.
That tells you everything you need to know about the 2024 class. Teams were willing to bet future, potentially high-value picks just to get the specific guy they liked in a "weak" year.
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The Biggest Surprises: Edey, Holland, and the Fallers
Zach Edey was the ultimate "mock draft" litmus test. Half the experts thought he was a second-rounder who’d get cooked in the NBA. The other half saw a 7-foot-4 monster who could dominate the paint.
The Memphis Grizzlies didn't care about the mocks. They took him at No. 9. It makes sense if you think about it. They needed a screen-setter and a rim protector to let Jaren Jackson Jr. roam. It was a "fit" pick that moved him way higher than the consensus expected.
- Ron Holland II: Once projected as the No. 1 overall pick, he slid to No. 5 to the Detroit Pistons.
- Dalton Knecht: This was the shocker. Most people had him as a top-ten lock. He fell all the way to No. 17 to the Lakers. LeBron probably sent a "thank you" text to every GM that passed on him.
- Matas Buzelis: A Chicago native going to the Bulls at No. 11. It’s a movie script, but most mocks had him higher.
Why the 2024 NBA Mock Drafts Were So Off
The 2024 cycle was uniquely difficult because there was no "tier 1" talent. Usually, you have 2-3 guys that everyone agrees are the best. This year? The guy ranked 2nd on one team's board was 14th on another’s.
Medical flags played a huge role too. Nikola Topić was a top-five lock until the ACL news broke. He still went No. 12 to OKC, which is the most OKC move ever—drafting a high-upside guy who can’t play for a year.
Scouts also leaned heavily into "archetypes." In a draft without stars, you draft for a role. You need a 3-and-D wing? You take Risacher or Cody Williams. You need a backup big? You take Kel'el Ware (who went 15th to Miami in a bit of a reach).
How to Use This Information Moving Forward
If you're still looking at 2024 NBA mock draft data to understand your team's new rookie, stop looking at the "projected rank." Look at the role they were drafted to fill.
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The 2024 class isn't about finding the next Giannis. It’s about finding the next Derrick White or Herb Jones. The guys who make a championship team complete.
- Check the Minutes: If a rookie from this class isn't playing 20+ minutes by January, don't panic. Many of these guys were drafted as long-term projects (like AJ Johnson at No. 23).
- Watch the G-League: Because of the lack of "NBA-ready" stars, expect a record number of first-rounders to spend time in the G-League this season.
- Evaluate the Fit: A "reach" is only a reach if the player doesn't fit the system. Edey at 9 looks great because Memphis needs exactly what he does.
The 2024 draft proved that the "weak" label is often just a lack of consensus. Talent is everywhere; you just have to know what you're looking for. Keep an eye on the guys who fell—like Knecht or Isaiah Collier (who plummeted to 29)—because they usually have the biggest chips on their shoulders.
To truly track how these picks are panning out, compare their current PER (Player Efficiency Rating) and Defensive Win Shares against their mock draft position. You'll often find that the "reaches" in the late lottery are outperforming the "safe" picks by mid-season. Check the latest rookie ladder updates to see which of these 2024 prospects are actually sticking in the rotation.