Honestly, if you’ve been scrolling through social media or catching the snippets on the nightly news, you probably think the 2024 election was some sort of unpredictable lightning bolt. It wasn't. When we look at the 2024 election votes so far, the data actually tells a much more grounded story about how Americans are moving—and it’s not just about who won. It’s about who stayed home and who finally decided to show up.
Donald Trump didn't just win the Electoral College with 312 votes to Kamala Harris’s 226; he did something no Republican has done in twenty years. He grabbed the popular vote. We are talking about 77,303,568 votes for Trump versus 75,019,230 for Harris.
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That's a gap of over 2.2 million people.
People are still arguing about "mandates" and "vibes," but the certified numbers from the FEC and state offices like the National Archives show a massive shift in the foundation of American politics. It's weird to think that after three campaigns, Trump actually hit his highest cumulative vote total ever. He’s now the only person in U.S. history to rack up that many total votes across multiple runs, even passing Barack Obama's record.
What Really Happened With the 2024 Election Votes So Far
There is this huge misconception that everyone who voted in 2020 just came back and changed their minds. That’s not really it. While the 2024 turnout was huge—the second highest in absolute terms with about 156 million people casting a ballot—it actually dropped compared to the 2020 peak. We went from 66.6% of eligible voters down to about 63.9%.
Why does that matter?
Because the "missing" voters tell the real story. Kamala Harris received about 6.3 million fewer votes than Joe Biden did four years ago. That is a staggering number. Meanwhile, Trump actually grew his base, picking up about 3 million more votes than his 2020 performance.
The Swing State Sweep
You probably heard it was going to be a "blue wall" or a "toss-up" for weeks. In reality, Trump swept all seven of the major battlegrounds.
- Pennsylvania: Won by roughly 2 points.
- Wisconsin: The tightest margin, less than 1%.
- Arizona and Nevada: Significant gains with Latino voters helped him win these comfortably.
It wasn't just a win; it was a total flip of the map. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin all went red after being blue in 2020. Only a few places, like Nebraska’s 2nd District and Maine’s 1st District, held out as blue dots in otherwise red territory.
The Demographics Nobody Expected
The exit polls and later Pew Research Center analyses are kind of shocking if you're used to the old 1990s style of politics. The "voter coalition" has basically been shuffled like a deck of cards.
Take a look at the Hispanic vote. For decades, Democrats relied on a massive margin here. In 2020, Biden won this group by about 25 points. In 2024? It was almost a 50/50 split. According to Pew, Trump got 48% of Hispanic voters. That is a tectonic shift.
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Breaking Down the Subgroups
- Black Voters: Trump nearly doubled his support here, going from 8% in 2020 to 15% in 2024. Most Black voters (83%) still went for Harris, but that 7-point swing is why places like Georgia felt so different this time.
- Young Men: This was the "podcast election." Men under 50 swung hard. In 2020, Biden won men under 50 by 10 points. In 2024, Trump won them by 2 points.
- The Diploma Divide: This is becoming the biggest predictor of how you vote. If you don't have a college degree, you likely went Trump (by a 14-point margin). If you do have a degree, you likely went Harris (by a 16-point margin).
It’s also worth noting that the "rural surge" reached new heights. In rural communities, 69% of people voted for Trump. That’s up from 65% in 2020. The cities stayed blue, but they didn't have the same "firewall" effect because the margins in the suburbs started to leak.
Why the "Blue Wall" Actually Crumbled
If Harris had managed to keep just a tiny fraction of the voters who stayed home, the map would look totally different. Analysts at the Council on Foreign Relations pointed out that if she had found about 230,000 more votes spread across Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, she’d be the one in the White House.
But they didn't show up.
A lot of people weren't "switching" sides as much as they were just opting out. The top reasons people gave for not voting?
- Not interested (19.7%)
- Too busy (17.8%)
- Disliked all the candidates (14.7%)
It’s a grim reality for political strategists: sometimes the biggest opponent isn't the other guy, it's the couch. Interestingly, the only age group that actually saw a higher turnout than 2020 was voters over 65. They remain the most reliable block in the country, and they lean heavily into traditional voting patterns.
Third Party Noise vs. Reality
People talked a lot about Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Chase Oliver. Early on, it looked like they might spoil the whole thing. In the end, they were mostly a footnote.
| Candidate | Popular Vote % |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump (R) | 49.8% |
| Kamala Harris (D) | 48.3% |
| Jill Stein (G) | 0.6% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) | 0.5% |
| Chase Oliver (L) | 0.4% |
RFK Jr. withdrawing and endorsing Trump likely solidified a few percentage points in those razor-thin swing states. Even though his name stayed on the ballot in some places, his "active" supporters mostly moved over. Jill Stein and Cornel West took some heat from the left for potentially drawing votes away from Harris in Michigan, but even their combined totals wouldn't have flipped the state back given the final margins.
Practical Insights from the 2024 Data
If you’re trying to make sense of where the country goes from here, stop looking at the 2020 model. It’s dead. The 2024 election votes so far prove that the "old" rules of which groups belong to which party are gone.
Watch the "In-Person" Trend
In 2020, 43% of people voted by mail. In 2024, that dropped to 29%. People are heading back to the precincts. If you're involved in local organizing or just want to be an informed citizen, pay attention to early in-person voting. That’s where the momentum shifted this time.
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Focus on the "Infrequent" Voter
The Trump campaign didn't just target their base; they targeted people who hardly ever vote. Among people who didn't vote in 2020 but showed up in 2024, Trump won them 54% to 42%. If you want to predict 2028, don't look at the people who always vote. Look at the people who feel ignored by the system today.
The Economic Factor is Real
Exit polls showed a massive dissatisfaction with the economy. Regardless of the actual GDP numbers, voters felt worse off. This drove the shift in the suburbs and among naturalized citizens. In 2026 and 2028, the party that can convincingly speak to the "cost of eggs" rather than "abstract democracy" is going to have the upper hand.
The 2024 election wasn't just a win for one man; it was a massive realignment of the American electorate. The numbers are certified, the electors have voted, and the data is clear: the middle of the country, the working class, and increasingly, Hispanic and Black men, are looking for something different than what the 2020 coalition offered.
To get the most accurate picture of your specific area, you should check your state's Secretary of State website for the final "Statement of Vote." These documents break down the results by precinct, showing exactly how your neighbors' priorities shifted compared to the last decade of elections. Understanding these local shifts is the only way to see through the national noise.