Texas politics is a weird beast. Every four years, we hear the same thing: "Texas is turning purple." People look at the growth in Austin and the sprawl of the Dallas suburbs and swear this is the year the GOP finally loses its grip. But the 2024 election in Texas basically took that narrative and threw it out a window. It wasn't just a win for the Republicans; it was a dominant showing that left a lot of folks wondering if the state is actually getting "redder" again.
Honestly, the numbers are pretty staggering. Donald Trump didn't just win; he cleared Kamala Harris by roughly 1.5 million votes. That’s a margin of about 14 points. For context, back in 2020, Joe Biden had narrowed that gap to about 5.6%. If you were a Democrat hoping for a slow, steady climb to victory, this felt like falling off a ladder.
Why the 2024 Election in Texas Defied the Pundits
The "Texas is a swing state" theory usually relies on two things: the suburbs flipping blue and Hispanic voters staying loyal to Democrats. In 2024, both of those pillars took a massive hit. You’ve probably heard about the "red wall" in rural Texas, but the real story is in places like the Rio Grande Valley.
Take Starr County. It’s 97.7% Hispanic. A Republican hadn't won there since the 1890s. Benjamin Harrison was the President back then. In 2024, Trump won it. That isn't just a "swing"—it’s a political earthquake. Maverick County moved a massive 28 points to the right. Basically, the border regions that used to be the bedrock of the Democratic party in Texas are now a primary battleground, and the GOP is winning the ground war.
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It wasn't just the border, though.
The suburbs didn't provide the "blue wave" that many expected. While Harris won counties like Travis (Austin) and Dallas, her margins weren't enough to offset the massive turnout in red strongholds. Tarrant County, which includes Fort Worth and went for Biden in 2020, flipped back to Trump. Even in the "blue" big cities, the enthusiasm seemed a bit... dampened.
The Senate Race: Cruz vs. Allred
Then there was the Senate. Everyone was watching Ted Cruz and Colin Allred. Allred, a former NFL linebacker, was supposed to be the perfect candidate—moderate, well-funded, and disciplined. They spent over $160 million on this race. That is a truly insane amount of money for a single seat.
Cruz ended up winning by about 8.5 points. He actually improved on his 2018 performance against Beto O'Rourke by a significant margin. While Allred hammered Cruz on reproductive rights and his infamous trip to Cancun during the 2021 freeze, Cruz leaned hard into the border and "culture war" issues. It turns out, in the 2024 election in Texas, the "mandate" Cruz claimed afterward was real. Texans, at least the ones who showed up, were more focused on the economy and the border than they were on the incumbency fatigue that Democrats hoped would sink Cruz.
Turnout: The Great Disappearing Act
One of the most interesting things about the 2024 election in Texas was who stayed home. We had record registration—18.6 million people. But turnout actually dropped compared to 2020. Only about 61% of registered voters cast a ballot.
Where did the drop-off happen? Mostly in the big blue urban centers.
- Harris County (Houston) saw a five-point drop in turnout.
- Dallas County was down significantly.
- Bexar County (San Antonio) saw 14,000 fewer voters than in 2020.
Meanwhile, redder suburban counties like Comal and Montgomery stayed steady or saw their vote totals grow. When Republicans talk about "voter enthusiasm," this is what they mean. Their base showed up; the Democratic base in the cities sort of flickered.
The Economic "Vibe" Shift
You can't talk about the 2024 election in Texas without mentioning the economy. It’s the "it’s the economy, stupid" rule, but on steroids. Exit polls and surveys from places like the Hobby School of Public Affairs showed that the economy was the number one issue for 66% of voters.
When people feel like they can't afford eggs or gas, they tend to vote against the party in power. It’s kinda that simple. In Texas, where the "Texas Miracle" of low taxes and business growth is a point of pride, the national inflation narrative hit particularly hard. Republican messaging tied Kamala Harris directly to those costs, and it stuck.
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A Quick Look at the Numbers (No fancy tables here)
Donald Trump pulled in 6,393,597 votes. Kamala Harris got 4,835,250. That’s a 56.2% to 42.5% split. In the Senate, Cruz got roughly 5.9 million votes to Allred's 5 million. If you're looking for where the third-party votes went, Jill Stein and Chase Oliver basically barely made a dent, combined taking less than 2% of the total.
What This Means for the Future
Is Texas still "trending blue"? Kinda, maybe, but probably not in the way people thought.
The idea that demographics are destiny—meaning more Hispanic and young voters automatically equals more Democratic wins—is officially dead. The 2024 election in Texas proved that Hispanic voters are not a monolith and are increasingly open to Republican messaging on the economy and social issues.
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If Democrats want to win here, they can't just rely on "changing demographics." They have to actually win arguments. They have to find a way to make the urban turnout look like the 2020 numbers again, and they have to stop the bleeding in South Texas.
Next Steps for the Politically Curious:
- Check the local shifts: If you live in a suburban county like Hays, Williamson, or Tarrant, look up your specific precinct results. The "micro-shifts" often tell a better story than the state-wide totals.
- Monitor the 2026 midterms: Keep an eye on the Governor’s race. If the GOP continues this double-digit dominance, it will change how national parties spend money (or don't) in Texas.
- Evaluate voter registration: Since registration keeps hitting record highs but turnout fluctuates, look for local organizations working on "get out the vote" (GOTV) efforts rather than just registration drives.
The 2024 election in Texas wasn't a fluke; it was a correction. The state remains the crown jewel of the Republican party, and for now, the "blue wave" has retreated back into the Gulf.