The dust has finally settled on the 2024 election, and honestly, the maps look a lot different than the "experts" predicted back in the summer. If you spent the last year watching cable news, you probably heard a thousand variations of the same story: women were going to save the Democrats, and the "gender gap" would be a literal canyon.
But when the actual ballots were counted, the reality was a lot more complicated.
The 2024 election by race and gender didn't just break old trends; it shattered the idea that certain groups are "locked in" for any one party. We saw the Republican coalition get younger and much more diverse, while the Democratic stronghold on working-class voters of all colors continued to show some pretty serious cracks.
The Myth of the "Historic" Gender Gap
You’ve probably seen the headlines about a massive "war of the sexes" at the ballot box. While there was definitely a gap, it wasn't the unprecedented tidal wave people expected. According to final data from Pew Research Center, Donald Trump actually improved his standing with both men and women compared to 2020.
Basically, the 10-point gender gap we saw (where 55% of men backed Trump and 53% of women backed Harris, according to AP VoteCast) was almost exactly what we saw in 2016 and 2020. It turns out that while reproductive rights were a massive motivator for many, they didn't magically override concerns about the price of eggs or gas for a huge chunk of the female electorate.
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- Women: Harris won this group 53% to 46%. That's a solid lead, sure, but it's narrower than Joe Biden’s 55% in 2020.
- Men: Trump carried men 55% to 42%. He really leaned into a "bro-vote" strategy—think podcasts and UFC appearances—and it paid off, especially with younger guys.
What Happened with the Hispanic Vote?
This is probably the biggest story of the night. For decades, the "Hispanic vote" was treated as a semi-reliable Democratic bloc. Not anymore. In 2024, the shift was nothing short of seismic.
Trump drew nearly even with Harris among Hispanic voters nationwide. Let that sink in. In 2020, Biden won this group by 25 points. In 2024, that lead shrank to just a few percentage points in some polls, while others, like the Edison Research exit poll, showed Trump winning as much as 46% of the total Hispanic vote.
Hispanic Men vs. Hispanic Women
The divide within this community is where things get wild.
- Hispanic Men: For the first time in modern history, a Republican won a majority or a near-majority of Latino men. Some data shows Trump taking 54% of this group.
- Hispanic Women: While they still favored Harris (about 60%), their support for the Democratic ticket dropped by about 9 points compared to 2020.
The "Young Black Men" Narrative
There was a lot of talk during the campaign about Black men "leaving" the Democratic party. Did it happen? Sorta, but let’s look at the actual numbers.
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Black voters remained the most loyal part of the Democratic coalition. Harris won about 83% of the total Black vote. However, the "leak" is real. Trump nearly doubled his support among Black voters, moving from 8% in 2020 to 15% in 2024.
The biggest movement was among Black men under 45. According to AP VoteCast, about 3 in 10 Black men in this age group went for Trump. That’s a huge jump from the 1 in 10 he got four years ago. It wasn't necessarily that these voters suddenly loved every GOP policy; it was a lot more about feeling like the "status quo" wasn't putting money in their pockets.
White Voters: The Steady Foundation
While everyone was looking at the shifts in minority groups, white voters—who still make up about 71% of the total electorate—stayed remarkably consistent.
Trump won white voters 55% to 43%, which is almost identical to his 2020 numbers. But there is a massive "diploma divide" here that's worth noting. White women with a college degree moved even further toward the Democrats, with Harris winning them by a 17-point margin. On the flip side, white men without a college degree remained the bedrock of the Trump base, backing him by massive margins.
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Why the "Shifts" Actually Happened
If you talk to political scientists like Kelly Dittmar at Rutgers, they'll tell you that "race" and "gender" are often just proxies for other things like age, religion, and where you live.
- The Rural Surge: Trump didn't just win rural areas; he dominated them. He carried rural voters 69% to 29%.
- The Urban Fade: Harris won the cities, but her margins there were smaller than Biden’s. If you aren't winning big in the cities, you can't offset the rural losses.
- The "New" Voter: Pew data shows that people who didn't vote in 2020 but showed up in 2024 favored Trump 54% to 42%. These weren't "converted" Democrats; they were "outsider" voters who finally felt like they had a reason to show up.
Actionable Insights for the Future
If you're trying to make sense of where American politics goes from here, stop thinking about voters as "monoliths." The 2024 election by race and gender proved that identity politics is losing its grip to economic and cultural "vibe" politics.
What you should keep an eye on:
- The Hispanic Middle: Neither party "owns" this group anymore. Expect both sides to spend billions here in the 2026 midterms.
- The Education Gap: This is now a bigger predictor of your vote than almost anything else. If you have a degree, you're likely a Democrat; if you don't, you're likely a Republican.
- Young Men: The "gender gap" is widening most aggressively among Gen Z. Watch how campaigns target "manosphere" platforms moving forward.
The 2024 results suggest that the old "Demographics are Destiny" theory—the idea that a more diverse America would automatically be more Democratic—is officially dead. The GOP is now a multi-racial, working-class party, and the Democrats are increasingly the party of the suburban, college-educated elite. Whether that's a temporary blip or a permanent realignment is the only question that really matters now.
Next Steps for Deeper Understanding
- Compare the Data: Check the Pew Research Validated Voter studies for the most accurate post-election breakdown.
- Look at State Levels: National numbers hide the truth. Trump's gains in Florida were way different than his gains in Pennsylvania.
- Track the 2026 Midterms: See if the GOP can hold onto the 15% of Black voters they captured or if that was a one-time "Trump effect."