It took weeks. Honestly, the 2024 California's 45th congressional district election results weren't just a "close race"—they were a nail-biter that basically kept the entire country staring at Orange County for nearly a month. While the rest of the nation had largely moved on to Cabinet appointments and transition plans, voters in Little Saigon and the surrounding suburbs were watching a digital tug-of-war.
Democratic challenger Derek Tran eventually unseated the Republican incumbent Michelle Steel, but it wasn't a clean sweep from the jump. Steel actually led for a significant chunk of the post-election counting period. Then, the lead evaporated.
The Final Numbers That Flipped the Seat
When the dust finally settled and the results were certified, the margin was razor-thin. We're talking about a difference of just 653 votes. In a district where over 315,000 people cast a ballot, that is essentially a rounding error.
Tran finished with 158,264 votes (50.1%), while Steel brought in 157,611 votes (49.9%).
It's kinda wild when you think about it.
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One-third of the district's registered voters are Asian American. Vietnamese Americans alone make up about 16% of the electorate here. This wasn't just a battle of ideologies; it was a deeply personal contest between two candidates who leaned heavily into their immigrant backgrounds. Steel often spoke about her parents fleeing North Korea, while Tran, a veteran and attorney, highlighted his family’s journey as refugees from Vietnam.
Why the Count Took Forever
California doesn't do "fast" when it comes to counting. Because the state allows ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted as long as they arrive within a week, and because signature verification is a slow, manual process, the lead swapped back and forth like a metronome.
- Election Night: Steel looked strong, holding a lead that many thought might stick.
- The Mid-November Shift: As mail-in ballots from later batches were processed, Tran began chipping away at that lead.
- The Flip: On November 16, more than ten days after the polls closed, Tran took his first lead. It was by a mere 36 votes.
- The Expansion: Over the next week, that lead grew to 102, then 314, and finally settled in the mid-600s.
Regional Splits and Voter Behavior
If you look at how the geography broke down, it’s clear where the win came from. The 45th District isn't just one vibe; it crosses county lines.
In the Los Angeles County portion of the district (places like Cerritos and Artesia), Tran won decisively with about 56% of the vote. That provided a buffer of roughly 4,200 votes.
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Orange County was a different story. Steel actually won the OC portion by about 3,500 votes. But because the L.A. County margin for Tran was larger than Steel's O.C. cushion, the seat flipped blue.
The primary back in March should have been a warning. While Steel dominated the primary with 54.9% of the vote, the combined Democratic field was actually much closer than it appeared on the surface. Tran had narrowly beaten out fellow Democrat Kim Nguyen-Penaloza by only 366 votes just to get onto the November ballot. He’s a guy who knows how to win by the skin of his teeth.
Money and Messaging
Both sides threw everything at this. Steel’s campaign was a fundraising juggernaut, raising over $10 million by the end of the year. Tran wasn't exactly broke, though, pulling in roughly $6.5 million.
The airwaves were a mess of attack ads. Steel tried to paint Tran as a "radical" tied to late-night legal maneuvering, while Tran focused on abortion rights and portrayed Steel as being too aligned with the national GOP platform in a district that Joe Biden had carried in 2020.
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What This Means for 2026
The loss was a gut punch for the GOP's California delegation. Michelle Steel was one of the party’s most effective fundraisers and a key figure in their outreach to Asian American voters.
For Democrats, this was a bright spot in an otherwise tough cycle. It proved that the "Orange County is turning blue" narrative isn't dead, even if the progress is slow and measured in hundreds of votes rather than thousands.
Actionable Insights for Following Future Races:
- Don't trust the Election Night "Winner": In California battlegrounds like the 45th, the first 48 hours of data are often skewed toward early mail-in voters or GOP-leaning Election Day voters. The "late" mail-in ballots historically trend younger and more Democratic.
- Watch the "Curing" Process: In races this close, campaigns spend thousands of dollars on "ballot curing"—contacting voters whose signatures didn't match to make sure their votes count. This is often where these 600-vote margins are won or lost.
- Demographics are Not Destiny: While the district has a high AAPI population, the split between Tran and Steel shows that voters are looking at specific policy wins and personal history rather than just party labels.
If you’re tracking the political landscape, the 45th is going to be a "Toss-Up" again the second the next cycle starts. Expect another barrage of mailers and TV ads in about eighteen months.