2024 California Senate Race: What Most People Get Wrong

Money doesn't just talk in California politics; it screams. By the time the dust settled on the 2024 California Senate race, the sheer amount of cash flooded into television markets from San Diego to the Oregon border was enough to make your head spin. We're talking over $85 million spent by late October alone.

Most people looking at the results see a predictable Democratic landslide. Adam Schiff won. Steve Garvey lost. Business as usual in the Golden State, right? Well, sort of. But if you actually dig into the numbers, there’s a much weirder, more strategic story under the surface. It wasn't just a "blue state doing blue things" moment. It was a masterclass in clinical, cynical political maneuvering.

The Strategy That Effectively Ended the Race in March

Basically, Adam Schiff won the general election back in March. That sounds like an exaggeration, but the math backs it up. In California's "top-two" primary system, the two candidates with the most votes advance to November, regardless of their party. Schiff’s biggest threats weren't Republicans; they were fellow Democrats Katie Porter and Barbara Lee.

If Schiff had faced another Democrat in November, he would have had to fight a grueling, expensive battle for every single moderate and progressive vote. So, what did he do? He spent millions on ads "attacking" Republican Steve Garvey.

The trick was that these ads framed Garvey as "too conservative for California." For a Republican voter, that’s not an attack; it’s an endorsement. Schiff effectively boosted Garvey’s profile among the GOP base to ensure Garvey would take the second-place spot. It worked perfectly. By elevating a Republican in a state where Democrats outnumber them nearly two-to-one, Schiff guaranteed himself a "glide path" to the seat.

Porter called it a "cynical play." Honestly, she wasn't wrong. But in the world of high-stakes politics, it was undeniably effective.

The Numbers Nobody Expected

When you look at the final tally, the gap seems massive. Schiff pulled in roughly 9,036,252 votes (58.9%) compared to Garvey’s 6,312,594 (41.1%).

But wait. Look at Garvey’s number again.

6.3 million votes is a staggering amount for a Republican in California. In fact, Garvey set a record for the most votes ever received by a Republican candidate in the state’s history. He even outperformed Donald Trump in California by over 200,000 votes.

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A Quick Breakdown of the Demographic Split

The race showed some pretty stark divides in who showed up and who they backed. According to data from the Rose Institute and PPIC:

• The Age Gap: Voters over 65 were the bedrock of this election. In the primary, over 2.2 million seniors cast ballots, while only about 347,000 voters aged 18 to 34 bothered to show up.
• Regional Surprises: While Schiff dominated the Bay Area and Los Angeles, Garvey actually managed to win Orange County. This is wild because Orange County simultaneously voted for Kamala Harris in the presidential race.
• Latino Voters: While Harris and Schiff maintained a lead with Latino voters, the margin was tighter than in previous decades. About 30% of Hispanic voters backed the GOP ticket, a trend that's been slowly ticking upward.

Two Elections at the Same Time?

You might have noticed your ballot looked a bit repetitive. That’s because there were actually two separate races for the same seat on the same day.

Since Senator Dianne Feinstein passed away before her term ended, there was a "special election" to fill the remaining few weeks of her term and a "regular election" for the full six-year term starting in January 2025.

Schiff won both. It was a bit of a quirk that gave him a slight edge in seniority over other "freshman" senators in D.C., because he technically started his job a few weeks earlier.

The Cost of Entry

Schiff didn't just win; he outspent Garvey by a mile. Schiff raised about $48 million and spent upwards of $62 million (using cash reserves from his years in the House). Garvey, despite a late-game surge where he actually out-raised Schiff in a couple of individual quarters, ended up spending around $20 million.

In California, $20 million is basically lunch money for a statewide race. To put it in perspective, the Schiff-Garvey contest was the ninth most expensive Senate race in the entire country in 2024.

Why It Still Matters Today

The 2024 California Senate race wasn't just about replacing a legend like Feinstein. It was a test of whether a Republican could even be competitive in a statewide race anymore. Garvey’s 41% was the best performance for a Republican in a California Senate race since 1994.

That doesn't mean California is turning "purple" anytime soon. But it does suggest that a well-known figure—Garvey, of course, was a legend for the Dodgers and Padres—can still consolidate the GOP base and peel off enough moderates to make things interesting.

Schiff is now one of the most powerful voices in a Senate where Democrats are playing defense. His background as an impeachment manager and a high-profile critic of the current administration puts him right in the center of the upcoming legislative battles.

Actionable Insights for the Next Cycle

If you're following California politics or planning to vote in the next round, here are the three things you should keep an eye on:

1. Watch the Primary Tactics: The "elevate the Republican" strategy is now the blueprint. If you see a leading Democrat running ads against a "dangerous" Republican in a primary, they aren't trying to defeat them—they're trying to choose their opponent for November.
2. The Seniority Game: Because Schiff won the special election, he has a head start. In the Senate, seniority determines committee assignments and office space. This "mini-win" actually gives California more clout than a standard freshman senator would have.
3. The Orange County Bellwether: Keep an eye on the OC. The fact that it split its ticket—voting for a Democratic President but a Republican Senator—shows that there is still a significant block of "split-ticket" voters who don't just vote straight party lines.

The 2024 race proved that while the outcome in California might feel certain, the path to get there is anything but simple. It’s a game of chess played with tens of millions of dollars, and Adam Schiff played it better than anyone else on the board.

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Next Steps: You can verify these final vote tallies at the California Secretary of State’s official archives or track Schiff’s new committee assignments via the U.S. Senate’s legislative database to see how that extra seniority is being used.