Honestly, looking back at the 2023 ncaa tournament bracketology season feels like trying to reconstruct a fever dream. One minute we were all arguing about whether Purdue was actually a "fake" one-seed, and the next, we were watching Fairleigh Dickinson—a team that didn't even win its own conference tournament outright—take down the giants of West Lafayette.
March Madness is built on chaos. We know this. But 2023 felt different because the predictive metrics, the ones we treat like gospel, seemed to glitch in real-time. If you spent that February staring at the NET rankings and Quad 1 wins, you probably felt pretty smart. Then the actual games started, and the "experts" were left looking as confused as the rest of us.
The One-Seed Debate That Aged Like Milk
The bracketology leading up to Selection Sunday in 2023 was dominated by four names: Alabama, Houston, Kansas, and Purdue. Alabama eventually snagged the No. 1 overall seed for the first time in program history. Brandon Miller was looking unstoppable, and Nate Oats had that team playing a brand of "rim and three" basketball that looked mathematically invincible.
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Then you had Purdue.
Everyone was skeptical. Zach Edey was a human cheat code, a 7-foot-4 mountain that nobody could climb over. But the bracketologists kept pointing at the Boilermakers' perimeter play. If you could pressure their young guards, the whole system would fold. On Selection Sunday, Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm had them locked in as a top seed, and the committee agreed. We saw how that ended. FDU didn't just win; they exposed the gap between what "bracketology" says should happen and the reality of a desperate 16-seed with nothing to lose.
The Bubble That Finally Burst for North Carolina
If you want to talk about a historic collapse, you have to talk about the Tar Heels. They started the season as the preseason No. 1 team in the AP Poll. Fast forward to March, and they were the lead story of every 2023 ncaa tournament bracketology "First Four Out" segment.
It was ugly.
They returned almost everyone from a team that was a few minutes away from a national title in 2022. But the chemistry just evaporated. By the time the ACC tournament rolled around, they were essentially begging for a bid. They finished with a 1-9 record against Quad 1 opponents. You just can't get into the dance with that resume, regardless of the name on the front of the jersey. When they eventually turned down an NIT bid, it felt like a mercy killing for a season that never really started.
The Teams That Snuck Through the Back Door
While UNC was falling out, a few others were making late-season charges that kept the bracketologists guessing until the final buzzer:
- Nevada: Most people thought they were cooked after losing their last three games. Somehow, they stayed in.
- Arizona State: Bobby Hurley’s squad lived on the edge all year. That miracle 60-foot heave to beat Arizona in February was basically their golden ticket.
- Pittsburgh: They were a "Last Four In" mainstay. They proved the doubters wrong by actually winning a game in Dayton, showing that the bubble isn't always a death sentence.
Why the Metrics Failed Us
We’ve become obsessed with the NET. It’s this black-box algorithm that the NCAA uses to rank teams, and in 2023, it produced some weird results.
Take Florida Atlantic (FAU).
For most of the season, bracketology experts had them pegged as a dangerous mid-major, maybe an 8 or 9 seed. The metrics liked them, but the "eye test" crowd wasn't convinced because of their strength of schedule in Conference USA. Well, they went to the Final Four. They weren't just a "Cinderella"; they were statistically one of the best teams in the country all along, but the way we project brackets often ignores the sheer cohesion of a veteran mid-major group.
The same goes for San Diego State. They were a 5-seed that played like a 1-seed. Their defense was a physical nightmare for everyone they played. If you only looked at their offensive efficiency numbers in February, you probably had them losing in the second round.
Lessons for Future Brackets
If 2023 taught us anything, it's that momentum is a lie, but experience is everything. The Final Four—UConn, SDSU, Miami, and FAU—featured exactly zero No. 1, No. 2, or No. 3 seeds. It was the first time that had ever happened.
When you're looking at 2023 ncaa tournament bracketology, the biggest mistake was overvaluing the "Power Five" regular season. We assumed that a mediocre Big Ten team was better than a dominant Mountain West team just because of the conference logo. We were wrong.
How to use this for your next bracket:
- Ignore the "Preseason" Hype: What a team did in November doesn't matter. Look at how they handle pressure in their conference tournament.
- Hunt for the "Old" Teams: In the era of the transfer portal, teams with fifth-year seniors (like 2023 UConn) are almost impossible to beat in a one-and-done format.
- Watch the Guard Play: Big men win games, but guards win tournaments. If a team's guards can't handle a full-court press, they are a ticking time bomb.
The 2023 season was a reminder that the committee is human, the computers are flawed, and sometimes a 16-seed from New Jersey can change the world for one night. Stop overthinking the quads and start looking at who has the grit to survive a 40-minute fight.
Check the current NET rankings for the upcoming season and compare them to the Strength of Record (SOR) metrics. If there is a massive gap—say, a team is #15 in NET but #45 in SOR—that's your red flag. Those are the teams the bracketologists love but the tournament usually destroys. Use that gap to find your next big upset.