Man, look back at the hype in June 2023. It was basically a religious experience for Spurs fans. We all knew Victor Wembanyama was going to be a problem, but the rest of the 2023 NBA draft class felt like this massive, high-stakes gamble.
Was Brandon Miller actually the next Paul George? Would Scoot Henderson make Charlotte regret everything? Three years into their careers, the dust has finally settled enough for us to see who actually has the "it" factor and who was just a product of a weak scouting cycle.
The Alien in the Room: Victor Wembanyama is Breaking Basketball
It’s almost boring to talk about Wemby because he’s exactly what people said he’d be, only somehow more terrifying. Usually, these "generational" prospects have a "welcome to the NBA" moment where they get bullied by a veteran. Vic just blocked that moment into the third row.
By the 2024-25 season, he wasn't just a "good rookie." He was a Defensive Player of the Year lock. He joined the likes of Hakeem Olajuwon and Andrei Kirilenko as the only players to ever record multiple 5x5 games (that's at least 5 points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks). Honestly, it's just stupid.
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He’s currently averaging around 24 points and 11 rebounds in the 2025-26 season. But it's the 3.5+ blocks per game that really ruins offensive schemes. Teams don't even try to go to the rim anymore when he's lurking. He’s basically turned the paint into a "no-fly zone," and the Spurs are finally starting to surround him with the right talent to make a real playoff push.
The Brandon Miller vs. Scoot Henderson Debate is Over
Remember when people were clowning the Hornets for taking Miller over Scoot? Yeah, that aged poorly.
Brandon Miller has been a straight-up bucket. He averaged 17.3 PPG as a rookie and bumped that up to nearly 20 PPG in his second year. He’s got that smooth, effortless midrange game that scouts drooled over. However, it's not all sunshine in Charlotte.
Recently, there’s been a lot of chatter about Miller's health. He's only played about 37 of his last 100+ games. When you’re trying to build a franchise around a guy, availability is kind of the whole point. His shooting percentages also took a weird dip recently—dropping from 44% as a rookie to somewhere in the mid-30s in his third year. It makes you wonder if the "untouchable" tag he had a year ago is starting to peel off.
Then there's Scoot.
Poor Scoot.
Portland fans really wanted him to be the next Dame. Instead, he struggled with a historically bad shooting start and has dealt with nagging hamstring issues that have basically wiped out his 2025-26 campaign. He has flashes—he’ll drop 17 and 6 and look like a star—but the turnovers and the lack of a consistent jumper have kept him in "project" territory way longer than anyone expected for a #3 pick.
The Mid-First Round Steals No One Saw Coming
If you want to see where the 2023 NBA draft class actually gets interesting, you have to look past the top three.
- Dereck Lively II (Dallas): This might be the best "fit" pick in recent memory. Putting a 7-foot rim-runner next to Luka Doncic is basically a cheat code. He’s efficient, he knows his role, and he’s a massive reason why Dallas stayed a contender.
- The Thompson Twins (Amen and Ausar): They still can’t shoot. Like, at all. But man, can they defend. Amen has actually emerged as arguably the second-best player in this class depending on who you ask. His playmaking and size (6'7") make him a nightmare on both ends for Houston.
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. (Miami): The "old" guy of the draft. Everyone passed on him because he was a senior. Now, he's a vital part of the Heat’s rotation. He’s just a winning basketball player. No flash, just results.
The "Bust" Label: Who's in Trouble?
It’s probably too early to use the "B" word, but some guys are definitely on the hot seat. Jett Howard at #11 for Orlando still feels like a head-scratcher. He barely touched the floor his first two years.
Similarly, Jarace Walker in Indiana has had a really tough time breaking into a crowded rotation. When you're a top-10 pick, you expect to be playing 25 minutes a night by year two. When you're racking up DNPs instead, the "bust" whispers start getting loud.
Actionable Insights for the 2023 Class Moving Forward
If you’re a fan or a front-office junkie, here is how you should be evaluating these guys right now:
- Stop overvaluing "potential" over "availability." Brandon Miller is more talented than almost anyone in this class, but if he can't stay on the court, his value is tanking.
- Watch the "Year 3 Leap." This is the season where players like Keyonte George and Cason Wallace need to show they are starters, not just rotation pieces.
- The Wemby Era is here. Don't compare other rookies to him. It’s not fair. He’s a freak occurrence. Compare the rest of the class to historical averages, and you’ll realize this group is actually deeper than we thought, even if it's top-heavy.
The narrative of the 2023 NBA draft class has shifted from "Who is better than Scoot?" to "How many All-Stars can this group actually produce?" While Wemby is the only lock for the Hall of Fame today, the growth of guys like Amen Thompson and Dereck Lively II shows that the scouts actually knew what they were doing—mostly.