If you spent any time in Pennsylvania during the fall of 2022, you couldn't escape it. Your mailbox was stuffed with glossy attack ads. Every commercial break on TV was a barrage of shouting. Basically, the 2022 PA Senate race wasn't just a local election; it was a $375 million heavyweight fight that decided the balance of power in Washington.
John Fetterman, the towering, hoodie-wearing Lieutenant Governor, and Mehmet Oz, the celebrity heart surgeon better known as "Dr. Oz," turned the Commonwealth into a political laboratory. It was a weird, intense, and often mean-spirited campaign. Honestly, it felt less like a policy debate and more like a clash of two very different "vibes." You had Fetterman’s "Every County, Every Vote" populism going up against Oz’s polished, celebrity brand.
The Stroke That Changed Everything
Nobody saw it coming. Just days before the May primary, John Fetterman suffered a stroke. It was a massive curveball. For months, he disappeared from the trail to recover, leaving his campaign to run almost entirely on social media.
While Fetterman was in the hospital, Mehmet Oz was emerging from a brutal Republican primary. Oz barely won—and I mean barely—beating businessman Dave McCormick by a measly 0.1% margin. It took a recount and several weeks for Oz to finally secure the nomination. By the time the general election officially started, both candidates were already bruised.
The stroke became the focal point of the entire race. Oz's team questioned Fetterman's fitness to serve, which backfired with some voters who saw it as bullying a stroke victim. On the flip side, Fetterman’s struggle with auditory processing was clear during the October debate. He used closed captioning to read questions. It was a rocky performance. Many pundits thought that night was the end for him.
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Money, Memes, and Crudités
This was the most expensive Senate race in the country that year. More than $374 million was spent between the candidates and outside groups. Where did all that cash go? Mostly into making the other guy look like a monster.
Fetterman’s campaign was surprisingly savvy with the internet. They turned Oz’s "out-of-state" status into a permanent punchline. Remember the crudités video? Oz filmed a video in a grocery store (calling it "Wegners," a mix of Wegmans and Redner's) complaining about the price of vegetables for a vegetable tray. Fetterman’s team jumped on it, portraying Oz as a New Jersey millionaire who didn't know how Pennsylvanians actually shop.
Breaking Down the 2022 PA Senate Race Numbers
When the dust finally settled on November 8, Fetterman didn't just win; he flipped the seat. He succeeded retiring Republican Pat Toomey. This was the only U.S. Senate seat in the entire country to flip parties in 2022.
The final tally was:
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- John Fetterman (D): 2,751,012 votes (51.2%)
- Mehmet Oz (R): 2,487,260 votes (46.3%)
Fetterman won by about 263,000 votes. That's a 4.9% margin. To put that in perspective, Joe Biden won the state by about 1.2% in 2020. Fetterman outperformed the top of the ticket in many "red" rural areas. He didn't win those counties, but he "jammed them up," as he liked to say. By losing by less in the middle of the state, he made Oz’s mountain too high to climb.
Voter turnout was massive for a midterm. About 54.4% of eligible Pennsylvanians showed up. That’s way higher than the national average of 46.2%. People were fired up, especially after the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision. About 8 in 10 voters said abortion was a factor in their vote. For a lot of women in the suburbs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, that was the dealbreaker that pushed them toward Fetterman.
Why the GOP Lost the Keystone State
There’s a lot of finger-pointing in politics. After the race, many Republicans blamed the "candidate quality" issue. Oz had lived in New Jersey for decades. He only registered to vote in PA in 2020 using his in-laws' address. Voters are sensitive about that stuff. If you don't feel like one of them, it's hard to get their vote.
Fetterman, despite his health issues and progressive stances on things like marijuana and criminal justice reform, felt "Pennsylvanian." He wore Carhartt. He had tattoos. He looked like the guys you see at a Sheetz at 2:00 AM. In a state that values authenticity, that "vibe" mattered more than a polished debate performance.
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Key Takeaways for Future Elections
So, what does the 2022 PA Senate race tell us about the future? First, you can't ignore rural areas. Fetterman spent time in places Democrats usually skip. He still lost those counties, but the margins improved just enough. Second, money isn't everything. Oz spent $25 million of his own fortune and still couldn't overcome the "carpetbagger" label.
If you're watching Pennsylvania politics, keep an eye on these shifting demographics:
- The Suburban Shift: The "collar counties" around Philadelphia (Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery) are becoming a Democratic fortress.
- The Rural Floor: Republicans still dominate the T-zone (central PA), but if a Democrat can get 35-40% of the vote there instead of 25%, the GOP has no path to victory.
- Independent Voters: In 2022, independents broke for Fetterman. Winning the middle remains the only way to win PA.
To stay informed on how these trends are playing out for the next cycle, you should monitor the voter registration shifts in the Lehigh Valley and Erie County. Those are the true "bellwether" regions. You can also look up the latest campaign finance reports on the FEC website to see if the spending spree is continuing at the same record-breaking pace.