Draft season is basically a giant game of lying to your friends while pretending you know exactly what a billionaire in a war room is thinking. Honestly, looking back at any 2022 NFL mock draft feels a bit like reading a weather forecast from three years ago. You remember the general vibe—it was gonna be a "weak" quarterback year—but the specifics of how it actually went down still feel sort of surreal.
Remember when we all thought Aidan Hutchinson was a lock for Jacksonville? Everyone had him penciled in at No. 1 for months. He was the local-ish hero, the "safe" pick, the guy with the high floor. Then, Trent Baalke did a very Trent Baalke thing and went with Travon Walker.
It was a total projection pick. Walker hadn't even been the most productive player on his own Georgia defense, but his combine numbers were basically lab-grown. That single choice at the top of the board sent every 2022 NFL mock draft on the internet straight into the paper shredder within five minutes of the broadcast starting.
The Travon Walker Gamble and the Ripple Effect
The Jacksonville Jaguars didn't care about "pro-ready." They wanted the alien. Walker's 4.51-second 40-yard dash at 272 pounds was the kind of stuff that makes scouts ignore mediocre sack totals. But when you look at how those mocks crumbled, the Walker pick was the first domino.
If Walker goes one, Detroit gets their dream scenario with Hutchinson at two. Most mocks actually got that part right by default once the rumors of Walker’s rise started leaking a week before the draft. But after that? Total chaos.
Take the cornerback room. We knew Sauce Gardner and Derek Stingley Jr. were the blue-chip guys. But the order was a coin flip. Many experts thought the Texans would take a tackle at three to protect whatever quarterback they hoped would eventually manifest. Instead, they grabbed Stingley. This left Sauce Gardner—the guy who famously never gave up a touchdown in college—to fall right into the laps of the New York Jets at four.
Why the Quarterback Mocks Were a Disaster
If you go back and look at a 2022 NFL mock draft from January of that year, you’ll see some names that make you want to wince. Malik Willis was frequently mocked in the top ten. Some people had Kenny Pickett going as high as six to the Panthers.
- Malik Willis: Often projected as a top-15 pick, he slid all the way to the third round (86th overall) to the Titans.
- Matt Corral: Another "first-round lock" in many early mocks who didn't go until the end of round three.
- Sam Howell: Some early-season mocks had him as the potential No. 1 overall pick. He went in the fifth round.
The NFL collectively looked at that QB class and said, "No thanks." Only Kenny Pickett went in the first round, and even that felt like a "local guy" pick by the Steelers at 20. The gap between how the media valued these passers and how the actual GMs valued them was a literal canyon.
The Wide Receiver Run That Changed Everything
One thing many mocks actually caught onto was the sheer depth of the receiver class. But nobody quite predicted the mid-round trades. The 2022 draft was the night the veteran WR market exploded. While mocks were trying to figure out if Drake London or Garrett Wilson would go first, the Eagles were busy trading for A.J. Brown and the Ravens were shipping out Marquise Brown.
The "big six" receivers—London, Wilson, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, Jahan Dotson, and Treylon Burks—all went in the top 18. If you had that on your bingo card, you're probably a time traveler. The Saints and Lions both traded up aggressively to get Olave and Williams, respectively. It showed that teams were terrified of missing out on the "new age" of cheap, elite rookie speed.
Where the "Experts" Actually Nailed It
It wasn't all misses. Most people knew the Giants had two picks in the top seven and needed to fix their trenches. Landing Kayvon Thibodeaux and Evan Neal was considered a home run at the time. Ironically, Neal has struggled significantly since then, proving that even "safe" mock draft hits can turn into NFL busts.
Also, Kyle Hamilton. Everyone knew he was a top-five talent, but the "safety value" talk pushed him down. Mocks that had him sliding to the Ravens at 14 looked smart on draft night and look even smarter now. He’s arguably the best player from that entire first round today.
Why 2022 Mock Drafts Still Matter for Evaluators
You might think analyzing an old 2022 NFL mock draft is a waste of time. It's not. It’s a case study in "Ceiling vs. Floor."
The Jaguars took the ceiling (Walker). The Lions took the floor (Hutchinson). Three years later, Hutchinson has been the significantly more productive pass rusher, though Walker has turned into a very solid starter. It teaches us that "Draft Wins" aren't just about who you pick, but who you pass on.
Lessons for Future Mocking
- Don't overvalue bad QBs: If the tape isn't there, the NFL will wait.
- Believe the "freak" rumors: When a guy like Travon Walker starts rising in April, it’s usually because GMs are enamored with the measurables, not the media's big boards.
- The "Third Tier" matters: Guys like Tyler Smith (Cowboys) and Cole Strange (Patriots) were "reaches" in almost every mock. Teams have their own boards; they don't care about yours.
The 2022 draft reminds us that the NFL is a league of traits. You can't coach 6'5" with 4.5 speed. You can't coach Sauce Gardner's "don't touch me" wingspan. Mocks are great for understanding player rankings, but they rarely capture the desperation of a GM who thinks he’s one "freak athlete" away from keeping his job.
To truly understand how to evaluate prospects today, you should go back and compare the pre-draft scouting reports of Brock Purdy—the literal last pick of 2022—with the guys mocked in the first round. It's the ultimate reality check for the entire industry.
👉 See also: Why Angers vs AS Monaco Is Always More Chaotic Than It Looks
Next Steps for Draft Fans
If you want to sharpen your own scouting eye, start by looking at the "Misses" from 2022. Look at the offensive line rankings from that year. Cross-reference the pass-blocking grades of Evan Neal versus Charles Cross. Seeing why the "consensus" was wrong about Neal can help you spot the same red flags in the next crop of tackle prospects. You should also check out the athletic testing scores of the 2022 defensive line class on sites like MockDraftable to see just how much of an outlier Travon Walker really was compared to his peers.