Draft night is usually a mess of nerves and expensive suits, but the 2022 cycle felt different. For months, everyone "kinda" knew the order. It was Jabari Smith Jr. to Orlando. Easy. Lock it in. Then, about ten minutes before Adam Silver walked onto the stage, the betting markets collapsed. The 2022 NBA mock draft world was flipped on its head when Paolo Banchero’s name started screaming up the boards.
Honestly, it was one of the most chaotic moments in recent draft history. If you were following a 2022 NBA mock draft back then, you probably saw Jabari Smith Jr. at the top of 90% of them. He was the "safe" pick. The Auburn star had that unblockable jumper and a defensive motor that made scouts drool. But the Orlando Magic had a different plan, one they kept so quiet that even the top insiders were caught off guard.
The Top Three Shakeup
Most people remember the "Big Three" of this class: Jabari, Chet Holmgren, and Paolo Banchero. Looking back now, the order seems obvious because Paolo is an All-Star and the engine of a playoff team in Orlando. But at the time? People were worried about his defensive intensity and his "sweat equity"—literally, there were reports about him losing pounds of fluid during games.
Chet Holmgren was the "unicorn." He weighed about 190 pounds soaking wet but blocked shots like a 250-pounder. The Thunder took him at number two, and despite a foot injury that cost him his entire first year, he's basically been everything they hoped for.
- Paolo Banchero (Magic): The alpha scorer.
- Chet Holmgren (Thunder): The defensive anchor with a guard's handle.
- Jabari Smith Jr. (Rockets): The elite shooter who "slid" to three.
Jabari landing in Houston was the biggest "oops" for the mock draft community. He was the consensus number one for weeks. When he fell to three, you could see the shock on his face. It’s funny how a three-spot difference can change the entire trajectory of a franchise. Houston got a defensive wing, but they missed out on the playmaking hub that Paolo became.
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The Jalen Williams Theft
If you want to talk about what most mocks got wrong, look at pick twelve. Jalen Williams out of Santa Clara. Most early 2022 NBA mock draft versions had him in the late first round or even the second. Then the combine happened.
"J-Dub" measured in with a 7-foot-2 wingspan and a vertical that made people double-check their spreadsheets. Sam Vecenie and other draft gurus started moving him up, but nobody really saw him becoming an All-Star caliber wing this fast. He’s currently putting up numbers that make him look like a top-five talent in a redraft.
"Williams is one of the biggest risers after playing well during the draft combine scrimmages. He got to the basket with ease." — This was the vibe around him in June, but Oklahoma City were the ones who actually pulled the trigger.
Then you have Walker Kessler. The guy was a block machine at Auburn, yet he fell to 22. Why? People were terrified he’d get cooked in pick-and-roll coverage. Instead, he ended up being one of the most impactful defensive rookies the league has seen in years. Utah basically got a starting center for a late-first-round price tag.
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Misses and Question Marks
It wasn't all hits. Johnny Davis at number ten to Washington is a pick that Wizards fans probably want to scrub from their memory. He was a monster at Wisconsin—tough, mid-range killer, gritty defender. In the NBA? The speed of the game just seemed to swallow him up. He's one of those classic cases where "productive college player" doesn't always equal "NBA rotation piece."
And then there’s Jaden Ivey. He was the most explosive athlete in the class. A lot of 2022 NBA mock draft experts had him as a lock for the top four. Sacramento took Keegan Murray instead, which caused a meltdown on NBA Twitter. "How do you pass on Ivey’s upside for a 22-year-old from Iowa?" Well, Keegan Murray broke the rookie three-point record and became a vital piece for a winning Kings team. Ivey has been good in Detroit, but he hasn't quite hit that Ja Morant-lite ceiling people projected.
- Keegan Murray: High floor, elite shooting, instant impact.
- Bennedict Mathurin: Pure "dog" mentality, scoring machine off the bench for Indy.
- Shaedon Sharpe: The mystery man who didn't play a second at Kentucky but still went seventh.
Sharpe is a fascinating case study. He was the number one recruit in his class and just... sat out. The Blazers took a massive gamble on him, and honestly, it’s looking like it might pay off. His bounce is generational.
Lessons From the 2022 Cycle
What did we actually learn? First, the "consensus" is often a lie. When every 2022 NBA mock draft says the same thing, it’s usually because they’re all talking to the same three agents, not the actual GMs. Orlando proved that a front office can keep a secret if they really want to.
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Second, wings with length and playmaking—like Jalen Williams—are worth more than specialized scorers. We see this every year, yet we still get distracted by guys who put up 25 a game in college on high usage.
If you’re looking back at your own evaluations from that year, don't feel too bad. Even the professionals missed the Paolo-to-Orlando pivot. The 2022 NBA mock draft season was a reminder that until the name is read, nothing is certain.
Next Steps for Scouting Analysts:
Start focusing on "processing speed" over raw athleticism. The 2022 class showed that guys like Keegan Murray and Jalen Williams, who just "know how to play," often outshine the raw athletes like Johnny Davis or Ousmane Dieng. Check the efficiency metrics on high-volume college shooters before slotting them into your top ten. You've got to look at how a player handles contact, not just how high they jump in an empty gym.