Virginia isn't a toss-up anymore. Honestly, if you were watching the 2020 Virginia presidential results come in on election night, you saw the final nail in the coffin for the state's "purple" reputation. Joe Biden didn't just win; he cleared the floor. He ended up with 54.11% of the total vote, leaving Donald Trump with 44.00%. That 10.1% gap was the widest margin a Democrat had seen in the Commonwealth since Franklin D. Roosevelt was on the ticket in 1944. Think about that. We’re talking about a state that, not too long ago, was the heart of the GOP's "Solid South."
The numbers tell a story of a massive demographic shift. Biden pulled in 2,413,568 votes. Trump grabbed 1,962,430. Even with a high turnout of 75.07%, the Republican path to victory in Virginia has essentially narrowed to a thin mountain trail. It wasn't just that Biden won the usual spots; it was the way he flipped old-school Republican strongholds like Virginia Beach and Lynchburg.
The Night the Map Turned Deep Blue
If you look at the map, Virginia looks like a sea of red with islands of blue. But those islands are where everyone lives. The 2020 Virginia presidential results proved that you can win the vast majority of the land and still lose the state by nearly half a million votes. Northern Virginia—the "NoVa" powerhouse—basically acted as a firewall. In Fairfax County alone, Biden racked up over 419,000 votes, winning nearly 70% of the county.
But it wasn't just NoVa. The real shocker for many analysts was the "suburban slide." Places like Chesterfield County and Henrico County, which used to be reliable GOP territory, went for Biden by significant margins. In Henrico, Biden took 63.7%. In Chesterfield, a place that hadn't voted for a Democrat for president since 1948, Biden won with about 52% of the vote. It’s kinda wild when you realize that the Republican base is retreating further into the rural Southwest and Southside regions while the population centers are sprinting in the other direction.
Key Flips and Historical Firsts
There were some "firsts" in the 2020 Virginia presidential results that really stand out:
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- Virginia Beach: Biden became the first Democrat to win here since 1964.
- James City County: A flip that hadn't happened for a Democrat since 1968.
- Lynchburg City: Biden broke a streak going back to 1948.
- Stafford County: This one hadn't gone blue since 1976.
Trump didn't flip a single county or city that Hillary Clinton had won in 2016. Not one. Instead, the "Blue Wall" in Virginia just got taller and thicker. Interestingly, Biden did lose a few traditional "bellwether" counties like Westmoreland, which had a knack for picking the winner for decades. He became the first Democrat since 1960 to win the state without it. This suggests that the old "as goes Westmoreland, so goes the state" rule is officially dead, replaced by the sheer weight of the urban-suburban coalition.
Why the Polls Actually Got it Right (Mostly)
A lot of people like to bash pollsters, but in Virginia, they were pretty much on the money. Most final averages, like those from FiveThirtyEight or 270toWin, had Biden up by 11 or 12 points. He won by 10. That's a rounding error in the world of political science.
The turnout was the real engine. We saw 4,460,524 total votes cast. For perspective, in 2016, the total was just under 4 million. That's a massive jump. People were energized. Or angry. Likely both.
Third-party candidates barely made a dent this time around. Jo Jorgensen, the Libertarian candidate, picked up 64,761 votes (about 1.5%). In 2016, the Libertarian ticket had managed 3%. It seems Virginia voters in 2020 weren't in the mood for a protest vote; they wanted to pick a side in the head-to-head matchup.
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The Rural-Urban Divide is Now a Canyon
Let's talk about the parts of the 2020 Virginia presidential results that people often ignore. While the suburbs went blue, the rural areas went deep, deep red. In places like Buchanan County, Trump pulled 83% of the vote. In Lee County, it was over 84%.
The problem for the GOP is math. Buchanan County only cast about 10,000 votes. Fairfax County cast over 600,000. You can win 80% of a small pond, but if your opponent wins 70% of the ocean, you're going to drown.
The shift is also about who is moving to Virginia. The state has a high concentration of government workers, tech professionals, and college graduates. In the 2020 exit polls, Biden reportedly carried government workers by about 18 points. With the federal government and the tech industry around Dulles continuing to expand, the demographic "gravity" of the state is pulling it further away from the Republican platform of the early 2000s.
What This Means for Future Elections
If you're looking for actionable insights from the 2020 Virginia presidential results, the biggest one is this: The suburbs are the new battleground, and the GOP is losing them. To win Virginia again, a Republican candidate probably has to look more like a moderate "country club" Republican and less like a populist insurgent. We saw a brief reversal of this trend in the 2021 Governor's race with Glenn Youngkin, but even that was largely attributed to "disproportionate mobilization"—meaning Republican voters showed up while Democrats stayed home. In a high-turnout presidential year, the 2020 results suggest the blue tilt is the new baseline.
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How to Use This Data
If you're a political junkie or someone working in local advocacy, here’s how to digest this:
- Stop looking at "Red vs. Blue" maps: They are misleading because they show land, not people. Focus on "dot maps" or "cartograms" that scale counties by population.
- Monitor the "Exurbs": Watch counties like Fauquier or Culpeper. If these start shifting even 2-3 points toward Democrats, the state is effectively out of reach for Republicans for a generation.
- Turnout is King: The 75% turnout in 2020 set a high bar. Any drop-off in urban turnout in future cycles is the only real opening for a GOP comeback.
The 2020 Virginia presidential results weren't a fluke. They were the culmination of twenty years of change. Virginia has transitioned from a GOP stronghold to a swing state, and now, it’s looking more and more like a solid pillar of the Democratic map.
To stay ahead of the curve, you should track the upcoming redistricting battles in the General Assembly. Democrats in Richmond are currently eyeing maps that could potentially secure 10 out of 11 congressional seats. Understanding the 2020 precinct-level data is the first step in seeing where those new lines will be drawn and how they will impact the power balance for the rest of the decade.