Honestly, if you look at a map of the 2020 Indiana presidential election, it looks like a giant sea of red with a few tiny blue islands. It’s the kind of visual that makes people think Indiana is a monolith. But when you actually dig into the numbers, there’s a lot more nuance to how 3 million Hoosiers decided to cast their ballots during a global pandemic.
Donald Trump won Indiana. That wasn’t a shocker. He took home 57% of the vote compared to Joe Biden’s 41%. It’s a comfortable margin, sure, but it’s actually a smaller gap than what we saw in 2016. While Trump’s raw vote count went up, the ground beneath the parties started to shift in ways that still have local political junkies arguing at bars in Broad Ripple and Fort Wayne.
The Death of the Bellwether
For decades, if you wanted to know who would win the White House, you looked at Vigo County. Home to Terre Haute, this place had a legendary streak. Since 1888, it had only missed the national winner twice.
Then 2020 happened.
Vigo County went for Trump by about 15 points. Biden won the presidency. Just like that, one of the most famous "crystal balls" in American politics shattered. It wasn't just a fluke; it was a sign that the old "middle-of-the-road" Indiana voter is becoming a rare breed. People are picking sides and staying there.
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The Suburbs are Getting Weird
The real story of the 2020 Indiana presidential election wasn't in the rural areas—those stayed deep red—it was in the donut counties surrounding Indianapolis.
Take Hamilton County. For years, this was the Republican "fortress." In 2020, Trump still won it, but his margin shrunk significantly. We’re talking about a place where GOP candidates used to win by 30 or 40 points. Biden pulled in over 45% of the vote there. You’re seeing similar shifts in Tippecanoe County, which Biden actually flipped. It was the first time since 1936 that Tippecanoe didn't go with the statewide winner.
Why? Basically, it's the "college town and suburb" effect. Places with higher education levels and diversifying populations are moving away from the current version of the GOP, even if they aren't fully "blue" yet.
By the Numbers: How Indiana Voted
If you're a data nerd, the raw totals from the Indiana Secretary of State are pretty telling.
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- Donald Trump (R): 1,729,857 votes
- Joe Biden (D): 1,242,498 votes
- Jo Jorgensen (L): 58,901 votes
Turnout was massive. About 65% of registered voters showed up. That’s the highest Indiana has seen since the early 90s. Even with all the COVID-19 chaos and the debates over mail-in ballots, Hoosiers were motivated.
Interestingly, Indiana didn’t make it easy to vote by mail. Unlike some neighboring states, you still needed a "valid excuse" to get an absentee ballot. The pandemic counted as an excuse for the primary, but for the general election in November, things went back to the old rules. Still, people stood in long lines. They waited. They made sure they were heard.
The Mike Pence Factor
You can't talk about Indiana without mentioning Mike Pence. He was the sitting Vice President and the former Governor. You’d think having a "favorite son" on the ticket would give Trump a massive boost, right?
Kinda.
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Pence has a solid 59% approval rating in the state, which definitely helped stabilize the Republican base. But he didn't necessarily "expand" the tent. The people who loved him already loved Trump. The people who were skeptical of the administration weren't moved by Pence’s presence.
What Most People Get Wrong About Indiana Politics
A lot of national pundits treat Indiana like it’s just a "colder version of the South." That’s a mistake. Indiana has a very specific "pioneer independent" streak.
- The Libertarian Factor: Jo Jorgensen pulled nearly 2% of the vote. In a tight race, that’s a spoiler. In Indiana, it’s a tradition. Hoosiers love a third-party option when they feel the big two are getting too loud.
- Labor Roots: Parts of Northern Indiana, like Lake County and LaPorte County, have deep roots in organized labor. While Lake County stayed blue (it always does), the margins are narrowing because of cultural issues and the shift of the "blue-collar" vote toward Trump.
- The "Indy" Bubble: Marion County (Indianapolis) is a Democratic powerhouse, giving Biden over 60% of its vote. But it’s effectively neutralized by the 70+ rural counties that vote 70% or 80% Republican.
Surprising County Flips and Holds
- Tippecanoe County: As mentioned, this was a big flip for Biden. Purdue University’s influence is real.
- St. Joseph County: Biden held South Bend (Pete Buttigieg’s home turf) with 52%.
- The "Pivot" Counties: Places like Perry and Vigo stayed with Trump, cementing the idea that the "Obama-to-Trump" voter is staying put for now.
Actionable Insights for Future Elections
If you're looking at the 2020 Indiana presidential election to predict what’s coming next, keep your eyes on the "Donut." The path to a more competitive Indiana doesn't go through the cornfields; it goes through the cul-de-sacs of Fishers, Carmel, and Zionsville.
- Check your registration: Indiana is notorious for cleaning up voter rolls. If you haven't voted in a while, go to the Indiana Voters Portal to make sure you’re still active.
- Watch the margins: Don't just look at who won. Look at the change in percentage from 2016 to 2020. If a Republican wins a county by 5 points less than last time, that’s a trend.
- Local matters: Presidential years drive turnout, but the local school board and mayoral races in these shifting counties often signal where the wind is blowing long before the next November.
Indiana might be "Red," but it isn't "Static." The 2020 results proved that even in a supposed stronghold, the demographics are moving, and the old rules of bellwether counties are officially out the window.
To stay informed on future shifts, you should monitor the official certified results from the Indiana Election Division and follow local non-partisan outlets like the Indiana Citizen for deep-track analysis on voter behavior.