If you just look at the maps, it seems like the country basically flipped upside down between 2020 and 2024. In 2020, we had a nation in the middle of a pandemic, masked up, and standing in long lines (or mailing in ballots) to decide if Donald Trump should stay or go. In 2024, the vibe was totally different. It wasn't about a virus anymore; it was about the grocery bill. Honestly, the 2020 election compared to 2024 isn't just a story of two different winners. It's a story of a massive shift in how Americans actually think about their own wallets and their own communities.
A lot of folks think 2024 was just a "repeat" with different results, but that’s sorta missing the point. The mechanics changed. The people changed. Even the states that were "safe" weren't as safe as we thought.
The Popular Vote Flip That No One Expected
Back in 2020, Joe Biden won the popular vote by a pretty healthy margin—over 7 million votes. He had 51.3% of the total compared to Trump's 46.9%. You’ve probably heard people say that Republicans "can't win the popular vote" anymore. Well, 2024 blew that theory out of the water. Donald Trump didn't just win the Electoral College; he took the popular vote by about 1.5 percentage points.
That's a six-point swing in the national margin. Think about that for a second. It wasn't just a few thousand people in Pennsylvania changing their minds. It was millions of people across the entire country—even in "blue" states like New York and California—moving toward the right. In New York, the shift was over 6%. Trump basically performed better in almost every single county compared to his 2020 run.
Why the turn-out story is weird
You'd think a big win means more people showed up, right? Not exactly. 2020 was a monster for turnout—the highest since 1908. About 66% of the voting-age population cast a ballot. In 2024, that dipped slightly to around 64%. Still very high, but the "energy" was different.
In 2020, Democrats were fueled by a "stop Trump" energy that brought out everyone. By 2024, that fire had dimmed for a lot of people. Pew Research found that 15% of Biden's 2020 voters just didn't show up for Harris. They didn't necessarily go vote for Trump; they just stayed on the couch. That "drop-off" was a huge factor.
The Issues: From COVID to Costs
If you asked a voter in 2020 what was on their mind, you'd hear about COVID-19, racial justice after the George Floyd protests, and "saving democracy."
Fast forward to 2024.
The conversation shifted almost entirely to the economy and immigration. About 4 in 10 voters told AP VoteCast that the economy and jobs were their number one problem. People were still feeling the "hangover" from 2022 inflation. Even if the official numbers said inflation was down, the price of eggs and gas was still higher than it was four years ago. That sticks with you.
The Abortion Factor
After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, everyone thought abortion would be the deciding factor in 2024, just like it was in the midterms. For Democrats, it was a top issue—about 16% called it their main motivator. But it didn't have the same "swing" power as the economy did. While Harris was seen as much better on abortion policy (leading by 11 points in some polls), Trump was seen as better on the economy and immigration. In the end, the "pocketbook" won out over the "ballot box" social issues for those key independent voters.
The Demographic Earthquake
This is where the 2020 election compared to 2024 gets really interesting. For decades, the rule was: Republicans win older white voters, and Democrats win everyone else.
That rule is basically dead now.
- Latino Men: This was the shocker. In 2020, Biden won Hispanic men by 34 points. In 2024, Trump actually won this group by 1 point according to some data, or at least came very close. That is a massive 35-point swing.
- Black Voters: Trump nearly doubled his support here. He went from 8% in 2020 to about 15% in 2024. He particularly made inroads with Black men under 45.
- Young Voters: Harris still won the 18-29 crowd, but the margin was way smaller. In 2020, Biden had a 24-point lead with young people. Harris saw that lead shrink significantly, especially with young men.
Basically, the "working class" is becoming a multi-racial coalition for the GOP, while the Democratic base is becoming more about college-educated suburbanites and women.
The Polling Mystery
Remember how everyone laughed at the polls in 2020 because they were so far off? They predicted a "blue wave" that ended up being more of a "blue ripple."
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In 2024, the polls were actually... kinda okay?
Most high-quality polls, like the New York Times/Siena ones, showed the race as a dead heat or a slight Trump lead in the swing states. When the results came in, they were mostly within the margin of error. The "surprise" wasn't that the polls were wrong; it was that the "late breakers"—the people who decide in the last 48 hours—almost all went for Trump.
Trust in the system
One huge difference was how people felt about the process itself. In 2020, there was a lot of skepticism, especially from the right, about mail-in ballots and "stolen" elections. In 2024, after the win, Republican confidence in the system skyrocketed. Pew found that 94% of Trump voters were confident their votes were counted correctly, compared to only 64% back in 2020. It's funny how winning changes your perspective on the rules.
What This Means for You
If you're trying to make sense of where the country is going, don't just look at the personalities. The 2024 election proved that the old "red state / blue state" map is more fluid than we thought.
Here is how you should look at the landscape moving forward:
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- Watch the "Red Shift" in Blue Cities: If you live in a place like NYC or Chicago, notice that the margins are tightening. Local issues like crime and the cost of living are starting to outweigh national party loyalty.
- The "Vibe Shift" is Real: Voters are less interested in "grand narratives" about democracy and more interested in practical results they can see in their bank accounts.
- Don't Rely on Old Demographics: You can't assume someone's vote based on their race or age anymore. The "education gap" (college-educated vs. non-college-educated) is now the biggest predictor of how someone will vote.
If you're looking to stay informed for the 2026 midterms, start looking at the "swing" counties in your own state. The 2024 data shows that the suburbs aren't a monolith anymore. Keep an eye on local economic indicators—they were a better predictor of the 2024 outcome than any political speech or ad campaign.
The 2020 election was a reaction to a crisis; 2024 was a reaction to the recovery. Understanding that difference is the only way to see what's coming next.