If you want to see a general manager sweat, just mention the 2017 nfl draft 1st round. It was a night of absolute, unadulterated chaos in Philadelphia. I remember watching it live, thinking the Chicago Bears had just pulled off the heist of the century by moving up one measly spot. Turns out, the joke was on them.
The 2017 draft wasn't just another year of college kids getting jerseys. It was a fork in the road for the entire league. You had some teams drafting "safe" guys who vanished in three years, while a couple of others stumbled upon literal gods of the game. Looking back from 2026, the gap between the "haves" and "have-nots" from that single night is wider than a Grand Canyon sunset.
The Mitchell Trubisky Trade and the Ghost of What If
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room. The Chicago Bears traded three picks—a third and fourth-rounder in 2017 and a 2018 third-rounder—just to move from No. 3 to No. 2. All that for Mitchell Trubisky.
Ryan Pace, the Bears' GM at the time, was basically betting his mortgage on a kid who only started 13 games at North Carolina. Honestly, it felt weird then, and it feels like a fever dream now. Trubisky wasn't terrible, but when you realize who was still on the board, it’s enough to make a Chicago fan want to walk into Lake Michigan.
Patrick Mahomes was there. Deshaun Watson was there. Both were sitting right there for the taking. Instead, the Bears took the guy who once famously tweeted about his love for "kissing titties" and hoped for the best.
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"I didn't even think I was going to get picked until the commissioner said my name," Trubisky told Suzy Kolber right after the pick.
He didn't even get a phone call before the announcement. That’s how fast and weird that pick was. Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers, who traded down, took Solomon Thomas at No. 3. Thomas didn't exactly set the world on fire in the Bay Area, but at least they got a haul of picks for the privilege of letting Chicago trip over their own feet.
When the Chiefs and Texans Changed the Math
While the Bears were busy with Trubisky, the Kansas City Chiefs were playing chess. They saw the board, saw Mahomes sliding, and jumped. They gave up a 2018 first-rounder to Buffalo to move up to No. 10.
Think about that. The Buffalo Bills had the chance to draft Patrick Mahomes and said, "Nah, we'll take the picks." They eventually got Tre'Davious White at No. 27, who was a great corner for them, but man... Mahomes. Three Super Bowls and two MVPs later, that trade is the single most lopsided transaction in modern sports history.
Two picks later, the Houston Texans did the same thing. They traded up with the Cleveland Browns to grab Deshaun Watson at No. 12. At the time, Watson was the "winner" of the class, the guy who had just taken down Alabama in the National Championship. The Browns, in classic Browns fashion, kept trading down to stockpile picks, eventually taking Jabrill Peppers and David Njoku later in the round.
It's sort of wild how the narrative shifted. Mahomes was the "project" with "malleable mechanics" from a "gimmick offense" at Texas Tech. Watson was the "proven leader." Trubisky was the "prototypical" guy. Only one of those labels actually aged well.
The Defensive Masterclass: Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt
We focus on the QBs because they’re the stars, but the 2017 nfl draft 1st round was arguably better for the guys trying to kill the QBs.
Myles Garrett went No. 1 overall to Cleveland. No drama there. He was a freak of nature at Texas A&M and he’s been a freak of nature for the Browns ever since. He’s arguably the best defensive player of his generation, recently hitting 100 career sacks faster than almost anyone in history.
But the real "how did everyone miss this?" story is T.J. Watt.
Watt went 30th overall to the Pittsburgh Steelers. 29 teams looked at the guy whose brother was already a Hall of Famer and said, "Eh, he’s okay, but let’s take Taco Charlton first." (Sorry, Dallas, but taking Taco at 28 while T.J. was still on the board is a permanent scar).
Watt has since tied the single-season sack record and won a Defensive Player of the Year award. He was the 30th pick. You’ve got to wonder what the scouts were seeing that made them think Takkarist McKinley (No. 26) or Charles Harris (No. 22) were better prospects.
A Round of Extreme Peaks and Valleys
If you look at the middle of the first round, it’s like a graveyard of "almosts" and "should-have-beens."
- Leonard Fournette (No. 4): He helped the Jaguars get to an AFC Championship and eventually won a ring with Brady in Tampa, but taking a running back at 4 is a luxury most teams can't afford anymore.
- Corey Davis (No. 5): A solid receiver, but you expect a superstar at No. 5. He never quite became the "alpha" the Titans needed.
- Jamal Adams (No. 6): He was an absolute wrecking ball for the Jets before the trade to Seattle. Now? He’s a cautionary tale about overpaying for "box safeties" who can't cover a twin mattress.
- Christian McCaffrey (No. 8): One of the few non-QB picks that actually lived up to the hype. He’s basically a cheat code when he’s healthy.
Then you have the secondary. This round was loaded with defensive backs. Marshon Lattimore (No. 11), Marlon Humphrey (No. 16), and Tre'Davious White (No. 27) all became All-Pros. If your team needed a corner in 2017 and didn't get one, your GM probably shouldn't have a job.
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Why 2017 Still Matters in 2026
The reason we still talk about the 2017 nfl draft 1st round isn't just because of Mahomes. It's because it proved that the "expert" consensus is usually a coin flip.
The 2017 QB class was widely considered "weak" compared to the upcoming 2018 class (which had Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Josh Allen). Teams were told to wait. The ones who didn't wait—Kansas City and Houston—changed their franchises forever. The ones who "reached" for the wrong guy—Chicago—set themselves back five years.
Actionable Insights for the Modern Fan
If you're looking at future drafts and trying to spot the "next 2017," keep these three things in mind:
- Ignore the "System" Label: Mahomes was discounted because of the "Air Raid" system at Texas Tech. In reality, that system prepared him to process information at a level the NFL hadn't seen yet.
- Experience vs. Traits: Trubisky had the "look" but only 13 starts. Watson and Mahomes had hundreds of high-pressure reps. When the bullets start flying in the NFL, those reps matter more than "prototypical height."
- The "Brother" Factor: Don't overthink bloodlines. T.J. Watt falling to 30 because he was "raw" while having the literal DNA of a superstar was a massive oversight by the league.
The 2017 draft wasn't a science; it was a gamble. For some, it was the jackpot. For others, it was the beginning of the end. If you want to dive deeper into how these specific contracts affected team salary caps over the last decade, you should look into the "fifth-year option" data from this specific class—it's where the financial divide truly started.