So, if you’ve been enjoying that weirdly warm start to the year in North Texas, I’ve got some news. The party’s basically over. Honestly, it was only a matter of time before the typical Texas winter decided to show up and remind us who's boss.
We’ve spent the first half of January 2026 coasting through temperatures that felt more like April than mid-winter. But right now, things are shifting. A massive Arctic front is currently barreling through the Southern Plains, and it’s about to make the 2 week forecast dallas look a lot different than that spring-like bliss we just had.
The Immediate Shock: What’s Happening Now
You’ve probably already noticed the wind. It’s north, it’s loud, and it’s gusting up to 40 mph in some spots. Today, Friday, January 16, we’re topping out at 59°F, but that’s the "warm" part of the transition. By tonight, the floor drops out. We’re looking at a low of 37°F at DFW Airport, but outlying areas like Denton and McKinney are going to feel that bite even harder.
Tomorrow, Saturday the 17th, is going to be a "stay inside and order Ramen" kind of day. The high is only hitting 47°F. There’s even a 10% chance of seeing a few stray snow flurries. Don't get your hopes up for a snowman—the air is way too dry for anything to actually stick—but it’s a pretty clear signal that winter has officially arrived.
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Sunday night into Monday morning might actually be the coldest we’ve seen all season. We’re talking widespread 20s. If you haven't wrapped your pipes or moved the sensitive plants yet, this is your final warning.
Week One: The Rollercoaster Continues
Texas weather loves a good mood swing. After that freezing Sunday night (low of 29°F), Monday, January 19, starts a modest recovery. We’ll climb back into the low 50s.
By Wednesday, January 21, the humidity starts creeping back in from the Gulf. It’s going to feel "damp" again. Highs will jump to 64°F, which sounds nice until you realize that usually means rain is coming. The National Weather Service is tracking a system for late Wednesday into Thursday that has a 20% to 40% chance of bringing measurable rain. It’s not a washout, but you’ll want the umbrella handy for those school pickups.
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Looking at the Daily Breakdown:
- Saturday, Jan 17: Cloudy and cold. High 47°F, Low 28°F.
- Sunday, Jan 18: Sunny but crisp. High 60°F, Low 29°F.
- Monday, Jan 19: Partly sunny. High 52°F, Low 31°F.
- Tuesday, Jan 20: Mostly cloudy. High 55°F, Low 32°F.
- Wednesday, Jan 21: Warmer and humid. High 64°F, Low 45°F.
Week Two: Tracking the Late January Rain
The second half of the 2 week forecast dallas is where the confidence drops a bit, but the trends are pointing toward "active." Between January 23 and January 26, we’re seeing a pattern of "mostly cloudy" days with temperatures hovering in the 50s and 60s.
The biggest thing to watch is the rain potential around Saturday, January 24. Some models are leaning into a 20% chance of showers, but the humidity is going to stay high (around 59-60%), which usually means we’ll have those grey, "Texas winter" skies that last for days. It won't be freezing, but it'll be that bone-chilling dampness that feels colder than the thermometer says.
By Monday, January 26, we’re looking at highs around 56°F and lows staying safely above freezing at 37°F. It seems like the extreme Arctic air might retreat for a bit, leaving us in a typical North Texas holding pattern.
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Why Does This Keep Happening?
People always ask why Dallas can be 75 degrees on Monday and 25 on Tuesday. It’s the lack of geographic barriers. There are no mountains between us and the North Pole. When the jet stream dips, that Arctic air just slides down the plains like a bowling ball.
Historically, late January is the prime time for our "pattern flips." We are currently in a La Niña transition toward ENSO-neutral, which usually means more volatility. We get these brief windows of spring, followed by a punch in the mouth from a cold front. This 14-day stretch is a textbook example of that.
Actionable Next Steps for Dallas Residents
Since we are looking at some of the coldest nights of the winter so far, don't just "wing it."
- Check the Sprinklers: Turn off your automatic systems. Water on the roads or sidewalks in 26-degree weather creates "black ice" that causes 90% of our local fender benders.
- The 4 P’s: Pipes, Plants, People, and Pets. If you're in an older home in East Dallas or Oak Cliff, those pier-and-beam foundations mean your pipes are way more vulnerable than the newer slabs in Frisco.
- Layer Up for Wednesday: The transition from a 45-degree morning to a 64-degree afternoon is a recipe for a cold. Layers are your best friend this week.
- Gas Up: Cold weather can zap older car batteries. Make sure yours is in good shape before that Sunday night freeze.
The "January Flip" is officially here, so enjoy the sun while it lasts today. It’s going to be a long, chilly weekend.