Honestly, if you've lived in San Antonio for more than a week, you know the drill. One day you’re wearing shorts to the Pearl, and the next you’re digging for that one heavy coat you keep at the back of the closet. Right now, everyone is staring at the 15 day weather forecast san antonio is serving up for January 2026, and the vibe is... complicated.
We are currently sitting in a bit of a weather sandwich. On one side, we have this weirdly pleasant warmth, and on the other, a legitimate arctic punch that’s about to give the city its first real "welcome to winter" moment.
The Deep Freeze Is Actually Happening
Forget the light jackets for a second. The most critical part of the current outlook is Sunday, January 18th. We are looking at a low of 33°F. National Weather Service discussions are pointing toward this being the first widespread freeze of the season for the metro area.
If you have those sensitive patio plants—the ones you swore you'd take care of this year—Saturday night is the time to bring them in.
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The wind is going to make it feel even nastier. We’re expecting northeast winds around 17 mph on Saturday, January 17th. When that dry air hits, the humidity is going to crater to about 18%. It’s that "chapstick and heavy moisturizer" kind of weather.
Rain is Coming (Kinda)
San Antonio has been in a drought for what feels like forever. Bexar County has been struggling since 2022, so every time the forecast shows a little blue raindrop icon, people get hopeful.
Here is the breakdown for the next couple of weeks:
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- Jan 19-20: The clouds start moving back in. Monday night has a 20% chance of rain, bumping up to 35% by Tuesday.
- Jan 21-24: This is the "messy" window. Expect light rain and overcast skies. Wednesday, Jan 21st is looking particularly soggy with 89% humidity.
- The Catch: Don't expect a drought-buster. Most of this is "nuisance rain"—the kind that just makes the roads slick and your car dirty.
What Most People Get Wrong About January Weather
People think South Texas winters are just "mild." They aren't. They are volatile.
We’re seeing a high of 72°F on Friday, January 16th, followed by a high of only 55°F the very next day. That is a 17-degree drop in 24 hours. That kind of swing is exactly why "cedar fever" hits so hard. Mountain cedar counts have been moderate to high, and these frontal shifts just kick those allergens right into your face.
The 15-Day Road Map
Basically, if you’re planning your life, here’s the rough sketch:
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- The Warm-Up: Enjoy Friday. It’s the last "nice" day before the front.
- The Cold Shock: Sunday morning is the big one. First official freeze territory.
- The Gray Period: From Jan 20th through the 24th, it’s going to be gray, damp, and cool. Highs will hover in the upper 50s and low 60s.
- The Recovery: By Jan 25th, we start seeing the sun again with a high of 57°F and clearer skies.
Look, we might be moving toward an El Niño pattern later in 2026, which usually means more rain for Texas. But for right now? We’re still dealing with the leftover dry spells and sudden cold snaps.
Actionable Next Steps:
Check your outdoor faucets tonight. Even if we only hit 32 or 33 degrees, it’s better to have those covers on now than to deal with a burst pipe because of a freak wind chill. Also, if you’re commuting Tuesday or Wednesday next week, leave five minutes early. San Antonio drivers and "light rain" are a legendary combination, and not in a good way.