Honestly, Knoxville weather in late January is a total mood swing. You've probably looked at your phone and seen that little snowflake icon next to a 48-degree high and thought, "Wait, what?" Welcome to East Tennessee. It's the time of year when you need a heavy parka at 7:00 AM and a light windbreaker by lunchtime.
If you’re tracking the 15 day forecast knoxville tn, you’re likely trying to figure out if that "wintry mix" is actually going to stick or if it’s just going to be another gray, damp Tuesday. Right now, the data is pointing toward a classic January squeeze play. We’ve got cold Arctic air trying to push down from the north while moisture creeps up from the Gulf.
The Immediate Outlook: Getting Chilly
Right now, as of January 16, 2026, we are sitting in a bit of a cold snap. It’s cloudy and 22°F outside. If you’re heading out, that 3 mph south wind isn't much, but in this humidity, it bites.
Today is basically a transition day. We’re looking at a high of 48°F, but don’t let that fool you. Tonight, things get messy. There’s a 70% chance of rain and snow moving in as the temperature drops to 20°F. If you’ve lived here long enough, you know that’s the perfect recipe for "black ice" on the backroads in Maryville or up toward Halls.
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The Next 10 Days: A Rollercoaster
Here is the raw breakdown of what the next week and a half looks like. It’s not a straight line down into deep winter; it’s more like a jagged heart rate monitor.
Saturday starts slightly warmer at 45°F with some sun, but Sunday the bottom falls out. We’re talking a high of only 33°F and a low of 24°F. Monday and Tuesday (Jan 19-20) are going to be the ones where you really want to check your pipes. We’re looking at lows of 15°F and 14°F. That is "frozen birdbath" weather.
By mid-week, Wednesday the 21st, we get a weird bounce back. The high jumps to 46°F, but it brings light rain and a 35% chance of snow overnight. This is that classic Knoxville "garbage weather" where it’s too warm for a snow day but too cold to be comfortable.
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- Jan 23 (Fri): Partly sunny, high of 51°F.
- Jan 24 (Sat): Light rain turns into showers, high of 55°F.
- Jan 25 (Sun): A massive swing. We hit 54°F during the day with a 65% chance of rain, then it crashes to 20°F at night.
Why the Forecast Keeps Changing
People get frustrated with the 15 day forecast knoxville tn because it seems to change every three hours. There's a reason for that. Knoxville sits in a geographic "bowl" between the Cumberland Plateau and the Great Smoky Mountains.
The mountains to our east often act as a wall. Sometimes they hold the cold air in, a phenomenon meteorologists call "cold air damming." Other times, they protect us from the worst of the storms coming from the Atlantic. Meanwhile, the Plateau to our west can squeeze the moisture out of clouds before they even reach West Knoxville. Basically, we are a microclimate nightmare for computer models.
Is Snow Actually Coming?
Everyone asks this. Statistically, January 24th is the coldest day of the year on average for us. While the current 15-day window shows high chances of precipitation (like that 65% chance on Jan 25), most of it looks like rain or a "wintry mix."
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To get real, "shovels-required" snow in Knoxville, we need the "perfect timing" of a moisture surge hitting exactly when a cold front settles. Right now, those two things are passing each other like ships in the night. You'll see snow flurries, sure, but don't buy out all the bread and milk just yet.
Actionable Prep for Knoxville Residents
Since we are looking at some sub-20-degree nights coming up between January 19th and 21st, there are a few things you actually need to do:
- Drip the Faucets: When it hits 14°F on Tuesday night, those exterior wall pipes are at risk. A slow drip saves a $500 plumber visit.
- Check the Battery: Cold kills car batteries. If your car groaned a bit starting this morning at 22°F, it might give up the ghost when it hits 15°F on Monday.
- Watch the Sun: Notice that the sunset is slowly creeping later? By the end of this 15-day window, we’ll have gained about 15 minutes of daylight since the start of the month. It’s a small win, but it matters.
Keep an eye on the wind direction too. Most of our cold air in this stretch is coming from the west/northwest. If you see that shift to the south, expect the humidity (and the "damp cold" feeling) to spike immediately. Stay warm out there, Knoxville.