You’ve probably seen the local news or checked your phone today and noticed something a bit off for January in the Sunshine State. Honestly, the 14 day weather forecast in tampa fl looks more like a roller coaster than a typical Florida winter. One day you’re looking for a light sweater, and the next, you're wondering if the city actually has cold weather shelters open (spoiler: they do).
It’s currently Saturday, January 17, 2026, and the ground-level reality in Tampa is a chilly 43°F tonight. If you're out near Ybor or the Riverwalk, that northeast wind is only 2 mph, but it still bites. Basically, we are in the middle of a weak La Niña cycle, which usually means dry and mild, but the atmosphere didn't get the memo this week.
The Wild Swing: What’s Happening Right Now
Today, Saturday, we are hitting a high of 71°F. That feels like the Tampa we know. It's mostly sunny, perfect for a walk, maybe some outdoor brunch. But don't get too comfortable. Tonight, the temperature is going to drop to a low of 46°F.
Tomorrow, Sunday, January 18, is where things get messy. We’re looking at a high of 62°F, but with a 65% chance of light rain during the day. The wind is the real story here: northwest at 19 mph. That's going to make that 62° feel a lot more like 50°.
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Expert Note: The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay has already flagged these "feels like" temperatures. When the wind chill hits 40 degrees or below, local shelters in Pinellas and Hillsborough counties typically open their doors.
By Monday, January 19, the rain clears out, leaving us with a crisp, sunny high of 57°F and a low of 38°F. If you have sensitive plants in your yard, Monday night is the time to cover them up.
Looking Ahead: The 14-Day Outlook Breakdown
If you're planning your schedule for the next two weeks, the 14 day weather forecast in tampa fl shows a slow climb back to "normal" Florida heat, followed by a very wet finish to the month.
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Week One: The Chilly Reset
After that cold snap on Monday, Tuesday (Jan 20) stays cool at 61°F. By Wednesday, we finally break back into the 70s. Thursday, January 22, brings a high of 71°F, but keep your umbrella handy—there’s a 75% chance of rain during both the day and night.
Week Two: The Heat and the Rain
As we move toward the end of January, the temperatures actually start to soar.
- Saturday, Jan 24: 76°F high, very pleasant.
- Sunday, Jan 25: 75°F high, mostly sunny.
- Monday, Jan 26: 69°F high, but a 20% chance of showers at night.
Then, things get weird. According to extended models, the last few days of January might see a massive spike in humidity and precipitation. By Wednesday, Jan 28, and Thursday, Jan 29, we are looking at highs around 79°F to 75°F, but with a nearly 100% chance of rain on that Thursday. We're talking about almost two inches of rain in a single day.
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Why the Forecast Keeps Changing
You might wonder why a "predictable" La Niña winter is giving us freezing nights and tropical downpours. Meteorologists from the Climate Prediction Center note that while La Niña generally pushes the jet stream north—keeping us dry—weak phases allow "teleconnections" like the Arctic Oscillation to take over.
Basically, the cold air "leaks" south. It’s why we saw those freeze warnings earlier this week and why the 14 day weather forecast in tampa fl keeps shifting.
Survival Tips for the Next 14 Days
- Layering is your best friend. You’ll need a heavy coat at 7:00 AM on Monday (38°F) but you'll be in a t-shirt by the following Saturday afternoon (76°F).
- Check your tires. Rapid temperature drops, like the one we're seeing tonight, can cause your tire pressure light to pop on. It’s usually just the air compressing, but it’s worth a look.
- Prepare for the Jan 29 Deluge. If the forecast holds, that Thursday will be a washout. If you have outdoor events or construction planned, try to move them to the preceding weekend.
- Watch the plants. Anything below 40°F is danger zone for tropical landscaping. Monday night (Jan 19) is the primary concern for frost.
The bottom line is that Tampa is currently a tale of two climates. We’re oscillating between "winter coat" and "pool day" every 72 hours. Stay tuned to the daily updates, because in a La Niña year, the 14-day window is more of a suggestion than a rule.
Actionable Insight: Download a radar-based app and set alerts specifically for "Significant Weather Statements." With the 19 mph winds expected Sunday, loose patio furniture should be secured by Saturday night.