Texas weather is basically a mood ring. If you've lived in Waco for more than a week, you know the drill: parkas in the morning, short sleeves by lunch, and maybe a random thunderstorm just to keep things spicy. Honestly, looking at the 14 day forecast waco residents are dealing with right now, it’s like the atmosphere can’t quite decide if it wants to be a winter wonderland or a spring preview.
Right now, as of January 16, 2026, we’re sitting in that weird mid-winter pocket where the temperature swings are enough to give anyone whiplash. Today is actually pretty gorgeous—sunny with a high of 63°F. But don't get too comfortable. By tonight, it’s dropping back down to 36°F. That’s nearly a 30-degree cliff dive.
What the Next Week Actually Looks Like
If you're planning a trip to the Magnolia Silos or just trying to figure out if you can finally wash your car without it raining ten minutes later, here is the breakdown.
Tomorrow, Saturday, January 17, things take a turn for the chilly. We’re looking at a high of only 47°F and a low of 31°F. There’s even a tiny 5% chance of snow overnight. It’s probably not enough to build a snowman, but it's definitely enough to make you regret leaving the plants outside.
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The wind is also being a bit of a jerk. We’re seeing gusts from the northwest at around 19 mph today, shifting to a northerly wind tomorrow. It makes that 47 degrees feel a lot more like 35.
The Mid-Range Outlook: January 19–25
By Monday, the sun starts to win the battle again. We’ll see highs creeping back into the 50s and 60s.
Here is how the back half of the 14-day window is shaping up:
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- Tuesday (Jan 20): Mostly cloudy and cool. High of 55°F.
- Wednesday (Jan 21): This is where it gets damp. We have a 25% chance of showers with a much warmer high of 64°F.
- Friday (Jan 23): Expect some light rain throughout the day. The humidity is going to jump up to about 75%, so it'll feel a bit "sticky" despite the cooler air.
- Next Weekend: We might actually hit the high 60s again by Saturday, January 24, before another front potentially slides through on Sunday.
Is This Normal for Waco in January?
Sorta. Historically, Waco averages a high of about 58°F in January. We've seen some crazy outliers though. Just a few weeks ago, on January 2, 2026, Waco actually smashed a record with a high of 87°F. That broke a record from 2009.
On the flip side, we can’t forget the "Great Freeze" of years past. January is the month where Waco is most likely to see its lowest temperatures. The average low is usually around 35°F, which aligns perfectly with what we're seeing in the current forecast.
Why the Forecast Changes So Fast
Waco sits in a geographical "hallway." Cold air from the Great Plains screams south, and warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico pushes north. When they meet over McLennan County, you get the chaos we call "Tuesday."
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Nuance matters here. A shift of just 50 miles in a cold front's path can be the difference between a light drizzle and a legitimate ice event. That’s why checking a 14 day forecast waco requires a bit of healthy skepticism for the second week. Meteorologists are good, but the atmosphere is fickle.
Real Talk: How to Prepare
- Layering is a lifestyle: You need a heavy coat for the 7:00 AM commute and a light hoodie for the 3:00 PM school pickup.
- Watch the wind: A 50-degree day with a 20 mph north wind is miserable. A 50-degree day with no wind is actually quite nice.
- Hydrate your plants: Even when it's cold, the Texas wind is incredibly drying. If we hit those freezing marks on Saturday night, make sure your outdoor pipes are covered.
The rest of the month looks fairly stable after the rain passes next Wednesday. We aren't seeing any major "Arctic Plunges" on the immediate horizon, which is great news for your electric bill.
Next Steps:
If you're planning outdoor events for the weekend of January 24, keep an eye on that Friday rain chance. While it looks like light showers for now, those Gulf systems can sometimes slow down and hang out longer than invited. Check back in a few days as the resolution on the January 21-23 rain system gets clearer.