Honestly, if you're looking at the 14 day forecast gatlinburg tn, you've probably noticed something weird. One minute it's calling for a dusting of snow, and the next, you're seeing highs in the 50s. Welcome to the Smoky Mountains in January. It's a place where the weather doesn't just change by the day—it changes by the mile.
Right now, as of January 15, 2026, Gatlinburg is sitting at a crisp 16°F. With a south wind at 4 mph, it feels more like 9°F. It’s the kind of cold that bites if you aren't ready for it. But if you think that’s how the next two weeks will look, you're in for a surprise.
The "Two-Sided" 14 Day Forecast Gatlinburg TN
Planning a trip to the Smokies this time of year is basically a game of "choose your own adventure." Looking at the data for the next several days, we are seeing a wild see-saw of temperatures.
For example, today (Thursday) we’re looking at a high of 23°F with some light snow. Fast forward just 24 hours to Friday, January 16, and the high jumps all the way to 46°F. That’s a 23-degree swing in a single day! You might start your morning scraping ice off the windshield and end your afternoon wishing you hadn't worn the heavy wool parka.
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What the Next 10 Days Actually Look Like
Most people just glance at the icons on their weather app, but the numbers tell the real story. Here is the breakdown of what to expect:
- The Immediate Chill: Friday and Saturday (Jan 16-17) are staying relatively mild with highs in the 40s, but keep an eye on Friday night. There’s a 65% chance of rain and snow moving in.
- The Deep Freeze: Sunday through Tuesday (Jan 18-20) is when the arctic air really settles in. We’re looking at clear, sunny skies, but don’t let the sun fool you. Lows will plummet to 10°F on Monday and Tuesday nights.
- The Late-Month Melt: As we head into Wednesday, January 21, and the following weekend, the pattern shifts. Highs climb back into the 50s (peaking around 54°F on Jan 23), but that warmth brings rain. By Saturday, January 24, there is a 70% chance of rain during the day.
Elevation: The Variable Your App Might Miss
Here’s the thing about Gatlinburg: the town itself sits at about 1,280 feet. But the Great Smoky Mountains National Park climbs way higher.
When you see "light snow" in the 14 day forecast gatlinburg tn, that might mean a few flurries downtown that melt on the pavement. However, up at Newfound Gap (just 16 miles away but thousands of feet higher), that same weather system could drop several inches of sticking snow.
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If you're planning to hike or drive the Foothills Parkway, you have to account for the "lapse rate." Generally, you lose about 3 to 5 degrees for every 1,000 feet of elevation gain. If it’s 45°F and rainy in Gatlinburg, it’s likely 32°F and snowing at the peaks.
Practical Advice for Your Smoky Mountain Trip
Don't let the "rain and snow" labels scare you off. January is actually one of the most peaceful times to visit if you know how to handle it.
Layers are non-negotiable. Seriously. You need a base layer that wicks moisture, a fleece for insulation, and a waterproof shell. Since the humidity in January averages a whopping 91%, the air feels "heavier" and the cold feels deeper than a dry cold out west.
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Watch the road closures. Because of the ice risk, the National Park Service often shuts down roads like Roaring Fork Motor Nature Trail or portions of Blue Ridge Parkway this time of year. Always check the official NPS alerts before you head out.
The "Winterfest" Factor. The good news? The Winterfest lights are still glowing. Even if the forecast looks a bit gloomy, the town is illuminated with millions of lights, making those cold, "partly cloudy" nights feel a lot more magical.
If you are driving, especially if you’ve booked a cabin on a ridge, a 4-wheel drive is your best friend. Those steep, shaded driveways can stay icy long after the main roads in town have cleared.
The next 14 days in Gatlinburg are going to be a mix of bitter cold, sunny mountain views, and messy wintry mixes. It’s unpredictable, a little chaotic, and honestly, exactly what makes the Smokies feel like a real winter escape.
To make the most of this forecast, download the official Gatlinburg app for real-time local updates and check the Ober Mountain webcams to see exactly how much snow is actually sticking on the ground before you head up the mountain.