You're checking the 14 day forecast cabo san lucas because you’ve got a flight booked and a dream of margaritas by the Arch. Honestly, most people look at a ten-day outlook, see a single cloud icon, and start panicking that their $4,000 villa rental is going to be a washout.
Stop.
Cabo isn't Florida. It's a tropical desert. That distinction is basically everything when it comes to understanding why your weather app is probably lying to you—or at least, not telling the whole truth.
The Reality of the Two-Week Outlook
Right now, if you look at the immediate window, we’re seeing a high of 78°F today, Sunday, January 18, 2026. It’s sunny, the wind is a lazy 8 mph from the southwest, and the humidity is sitting at a comfortable 57%.
But here’s the thing: as we look deeper into the next two weeks, the numbers stay remarkably steady. Tomorrow, Monday, January 19, is looking like a repeat at 78°F, though we might see more clouds. In fact, through the end of January, you’re looking at a narrow band of daytime highs between 76°F and 79°F.
It’s consistent. Almost suspiciously so.
Why Your App Predicts Rain (That Never Happens)
You might see a 10% or 25% chance of rain on Saturday, January 24. In most parts of the world, that means "maybe pack an umbrella." In Cabo? It usually means a few stray drops might hit a cactus in the Sierra de la Laguna mountains while you’re perfectly dry at Medano Beach.
Cabo averages about ten inches of rain per year. Most of that falls in August and September during hurricane season. If you're looking at a January forecast, "mostly cloudy" is about as extreme as the drama gets.
Temperature Swings: The Desert Secret
The biggest mistake travelers make isn't ignoring the rain; it's ignoring the sunset.
Because this is a desert, the "feels like" temperature craters the moment the sun dips behind the Pacific. Today’s low is 72°F, which sounds warm, but with a 10 mph breeze coming off the ocean, it feels significantly crisper. By next week, lows will dip to 65°F.
If you’re dining cliffside at El Farallon or Sunset Monalisa, you will be shivering in your linen shirt. I’ve seen it a thousand times. Tourists in shorts looking miserable while the locals are rocking light down vests.
The Water Temperature Factor
The ocean is a different beast. Currently, sea temperatures are hovering around 73°F.
- Sea of Cortez side: Generally calmer and feels a bit warmer.
- Pacific side: Brisk. Refreshing? Sure. But if you’re planning on snorkeling for an hour, you might want a 3mm shorty wetsuit.
What to Actually Pack Based on the Current 14-Day Trend
Forget the heavy-duty raincoat. You won't need it. Instead, focus on the "Cabo Layering System."
- The Base: Breathable cotton or linen for the 78-degree afternoons.
- The Shield: A high-quality, reef-safe sunscreen. The UV index today is a 5, which is moderate, but the Baja sun is deceptive. It bites.
- The Evening Savior: A denim jacket or a light cashmere sweater.
Whale Watching and Wind
January is peak whale season. The 14 day forecast cabo san lucas shows wind speeds staying between 5 mph and 11 mph. This is actually great news. High winds (above 15-20 mph) can lead to "Port Closed" signs and canceled boat tours. With the current southwest and west winds staying under 11 mph, the conditions for hitting the water are basically perfect.
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Just remember that the wind on a moving boat at 8:00 AM feels about 10 degrees colder than the thermometer says.
Actionable Insights for Your Trip
- Book the morning tours: Winds tend to pick up in the late afternoon. If you want that glass-bottom boat to be a smooth ride, go early.
- Check the Pacific vs. Gulf: If the forecast shows "West" winds (like we see for Jan 22-25), the Pacific side will be choppy. Stick to the swimming beaches on the Sea of Cortez side (Chileno or Santa Maria).
- Don't cancel over "Cloudy": A cloudy day in Cabo is often just a thin "marine layer" that burns off by noon. It actually makes for better vacation photos because you aren't squinting in every shot.
Trust the desert. The 14-day outlook is less of a warning and more of a promise that you're going to have a very comfortable, very dry, and very sunny vacation.
Next Steps:
Confirm your outdoor dining reservations for the earlier slots (around 5:30 PM) to catch the sunset warmth before the desert chill sets in after 7:00 PM. Check your boat tour operator's policy on wind cancellations, though the current sub-11 mph forecast suggests you're in the clear.