Politics in the 12th district isn't just one story. It’s actually about a dozen different ones happening simultaneously across the country. Because "the 12th" means something completely different depending on whether you’re standing in the middle of a cornfield in Southern Illinois or on a posh street corner in Manhattan's Upper East Side.
Most people think these mid-term cycles are sleepy. They aren't. Especially not in 2026.
With control of the House constantly teetering on a knife’s edge, these specific 12th district races are where the real friction is. We’ve got veteran incumbents trying to hold off primary challengers and wide-open "open seats" where the gloves have already come off. Honestly, if you aren't watching these names, you're missing where the actual power shifts are happening.
The Shockwave in New York’s 12th District
If you want drama, look at New York. Rep. Jerry Nadler—a fixture of Manhattan politics for decades—is retiring. That one move turned the NY-12 into a total free-for-all.
The big news? George Conway officially jumped in this January. Yeah, that George Conway. He’s banking on his massive social media following and anti-Trump credentials to carry him through a Democratic primary that is already packed to the rafters. But he’s not the only heavy hitter.
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You’ve got Micah Lasher, who has the "heir apparent" vibe as a Nadler protégé. Then there’s Cameron Kasky, the gun control advocate who survived the Parkland shooting, bringing a younger, more activist energy to the race. Oh, and Jack Schlossberg—JFK’s grandson—is in the mix too. It’s basically a clash of political dynasties, celebrity influencers, and grassroots activists all fighting for one of the most "Solid Blue" seats in the country.
Illinois 12th: A Battle of Service Records
Move over to Illinois, and the vibe shifts completely. This isn't a crowded primary; it’s a heavyweight boxing match between two people who have spent their lives in service, just in very different ways.
Mike Bost, the Republican incumbent, has held this seat since 2015. He’s a Marine vet and a former firefighter. He talks a lot about the district being "home" and often rails against Chicago-centric laws that he feels hurt the farmers and miners in the southern part of the state.
Then you have the challenger, Julie Fortier. She’s a Democrat, an Air Force veteran, and she holds a Ph.D. in pathology research. It’s a fascinating matchup. Fortier is leaning hard into her scientific background, basically saying, "I look at data and find solutions fast." She’s been vocal about Bost’s support for the SAVE Act, arguing it makes it harder for deployed military members to register to vote. In a district that is 87% white and heavily agricultural, this race is going to be a test of whether a "data-driven" Democrat can flip a seat that’s been red for a decade.
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Texas 12th: Life After Kay Granger
Down in Texas, the 12th district is entering its first full cycle without Kay Granger, who loomed large over Fort Worth for years. Craig Goldman is the man in the seat now, and he’s already sitting on a massive war chest—we're talking over $850,000 in cash on hand as of late 2025.
But he’s got company. On the Republican side, Brian Sprague and Semaj Swire are looking to challenge him in the March primary. Over on the Democratic side, Kenneth Morgan-Aguilera and Heli Rodriguez Prilliman are vying for the chance to take the seat back. While Goldman looks strong, Texas primaries are notoriously unpredictable. One bad week can change everything.
The "Safe" Incumbents Under Pressure
Not every 12th district is a toss-up, but that doesn’t mean the candidates are relaxing.
- Pennsylvania 12th: Summer Lee is the incumbent here. She’s a progressive powerhouse, but she’s facing Democratic primary pressure from Adam Forgie, plus a trio of Republicans—Benson Fechter, James Hayes, and Arnold Santos—waiting for the general.
- North Carolina 12th: Alma Adams has been in office since 2014. She’s facing a primary challenge from Monaca Maye Williamson. On the GOP side, Addul Ali and Jack Codiga are battling it out.
- Michigan 12th: Rashida Tlaib is the incumbent and remains a massive figure in national politics. She’s facing primary challenges from Allen Downer and Byron Nolen, but the Cook Political Report still has this as "Solid Democratic."
Florida’s 12th: The Bilirakis Stronghold
In Florida, Gus Bilirakis is the name to beat. He’s been around a long time and consistently wins with huge margins—over 70% in the last outing. For 2026, he’s facing Shay Williams in the primary and Christopher Irizarry on the Democratic side. Irizarry is an Army vet running on a "Medicare for All" platform. It’s a steep uphill climb in a district rated "Safe Republican," but Irizarry is betting that a focus on veterans' affairs might bridge the gap.
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Ohio 12th: The Rematch?
In Ohio, it looks like we might see a repeat of the 2024 showdown. Incumbent Troy Balderson is running again, and so is Democrat Jerrad Christian. Balderson won handily last time, but Christian is back for more. Ohio’s redistricting history always adds a layer of "wait and see" to these races, but for now, Balderson’s $1.5 million in the bank makes him a very tough target.
What to Watch for Next
If you’re trying to keep track of all these 12th district candidates, you've gotta watch the calendar. The Texas and North Carolina primaries hit first in March. Those results will tell us if the "incumbent protection" vibe is holding or if voters are looking for a total reset.
Actionable Steps for Voters:
- Check your registration: Especially in districts like Illinois where the SAVE Act is a major talking point, make sure your paperwork is actually up to date.
- Follow the money: Look at the FEC filings. When a candidate like Craig Goldman has $800k and his challenger has $73, that tells you a lot about the "real" state of the race before a single vote is cast.
- Look past the party: In New York, the Democratic primary is the election. In Florida, the Republican primary usually decides the winner. Don't wait until November to start paying attention.
The 12th district—no matter which state you're in—is a microcosm of the 2026 national mood. Whether it's the celebrity-fueled race in Manhattan or the veteran-vs-incumbent fight in rural Illinois, these candidates are the ones who will be deciding the country's direction for the next two years.