You’ve probably looked out the window at the Missouri River lately and wondered if the Montana winter finally decided to take a permanent vacation. We’ve had some weirdly mild days. Honestly, seeing people in light hoodies in the middle of January feels like we’re cheating the system. But don't get too comfortable.
If you’re tracking the 10 day weather forecast Great Falls MT, the atmosphere is about to pull a classic "Big Sky" bait-and-switch.
Today, Sunday, January 18, 2026, we’re sitting at a fairly standard 33°F. It’s cloudy. Kinda grey. The wind is behaving itself at 7 mph from the north, which is a miracle for anyone who usually spends their afternoons chasing their trash cans down the street. But looking at the maps from the National Weather Service, that calm is the setup for a much colder second act.
The Short-Term Swing: One Last Warm Breath
Tomorrow, Monday, January 19, is actually looking like the peak of the week. We’re expecting a high of 41°F. It’ll stay cloudy, but that southwest wind—the "Chinook" breath we all know and love—is going to kick up to 11 mph. It’s perfect for running errands or finally knocking the ice off the driveway before the real plunge starts.
Everything changes Tuesday.
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Basically, a series of shortwave disturbances are cascading down from Canada. Think of them like a conveyor belt of cold air. By Tuesday, January 20, we’re looking at light snow and a high that drops back down to 31°F. The wind shifts to the northwest, and the chance of precipitation jumps to 35%. It’s not a "bury your house" kind of storm, but it’s enough to make the commute slick.
The 10 Day Weather Forecast Great Falls MT: Tracking the Deep Freeze
The real story isn't the light snow on Tuesday. It’s the "Arctic Surge" that the models are locking onto for next weekend. If you’ve lived here a while, you know that "below seasonal averages" in January can get serious fast.
The midweek transition stays chilly but manageable.
- Wednesday: 30°F high, 19°F low. Cloudy and steady.
- Thursday: 26°F high, 12°F low. You'll start feeling that bite in the air.
- Friday: 26°F high, but watch the overnight low. It hits 12°F with snow showers moving in.
Then, the floor drops out.
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By Saturday, January 24, we are looking at a high of only 16°F. The low? It’s dipping into the negatives at -3°F. Sunday, January 25, is even more brutal with a projected high of just 8°F. That’s a 33-degree swing from where we are today. When you factor in the humidity hitting 84% on Sunday, that cold is going to feel like it's sinking right into your bones.
Why This Forecast Actually Matters This Year
There's been a lot of talk about the "Snow Drought" across the West this winter. As of early January, about 20% of Montana's SNOTEL stations were reporting lower-than-normal snow water equivalents. We've had more rain than snow in some spots, which is great for the roads but terrible for our summer water supply.
This upcoming week brings a decent chance of snow almost every single day, particularly Tuesday, Sunday, and the following Monday. It’s the kind of consistent, light-to-moderate accumulation that helps chip away at that deficit without causing a total city shutdown.
Prep Steps for the Arctic Surge
Since we're heading into sub-zero territory by the end of the week, now is the time to actually do the things we usually put off until the pipes freeze.
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First, check your car's antifreeze and battery. A battery that works fine at 40°F can completely give up the ghost when it hits -3°F on Sunday night.
Second, if you’ve got livestock or outdoor pets, Saturday is your deadline for extra bedding and ensuring water heaters are actually plugged in and working. The National Weather Service office on Tri-Hill Frontage Road has already started issuing advisories for newborn livestock because of this specific cold front.
Third, plan your travel around Tuesday and next Sunday. Those are the days with the highest snow probability (35%). In Great Falls, 35% often means "wait ten minutes and it'll change," but with the dropping temperatures, the ice won't be melting off the asphalt like it has been.
The 10 day weather forecast Great Falls MT shows a return to form for a Montana winter. We’re moving from the "hoodie weather" of the 40s into the "don't leave any skin exposed" single digits. Enjoy the 41°F tomorrow while you can. By next Sunday, you’ll be wishing for it.