If you’ve lived in the Snake River Plain for more than a minute, you know that January usually means one thing: bone-chilling inversions that turn the sky into a grey soup. But honestly, looking at the 10 day weather forecast for idaho falls idaho, things are feeling a bit... off.
It’s currently Thursday, January 15, 2026, and while we should probably be buried in three feet of the white stuff, the sky is clear and the thermometer is sitting at a surprisingly "balmy" 34°F. If you’re a local, you’re probably waiting for the other shoe to drop.
What the Next 10 Days Actually Look Like
We aren't seeing those legendary -20°F snaps just yet. In fact, the upcoming week is looking suspiciously pleasant, though that comes with a massive asterisk for our local farmers and skiers.
The immediate outlook is dominated by sun. We’re talking bright, crisp Idaho sunshine from Friday through Monday. Temperatures are hovering in the mid-30s during the day—specifically around 35°F to 37°F—and dipping into the teens at night. It’s that classic high-desert swing where you need a heavy parka at 7:00 AM and find yourself unzipping it by lunchtime at Snake River Landing.
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By Tuesday, January 20, the clouds start to roll back in. We’re looking at a shift toward "mostly cloudy" conditions with a slight 10% nudge toward snow. But the real change hits later in the week. By Thursday, January 22, the forecast calls for a mix of rain and snow with a high of 40°F.
Yeah, you read that right. Rain. In Idaho Falls. In January.
The Snow Drought is Real (and Kinda Scary)
We have to talk about the elephant in the room: the snowpack. Erin Whorton, a water supply specialist with NRCS Idaho, recently pointed out that while we’ve had precipitation, it hasn’t been the right kind. Because temperatures have been hovering just above freezing, a lot of our "winter" moisture has fallen as rain in the valleys.
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Basically, we are in a "snow drought." Even though the basins are technically getting water, the "natural reservoir" of snow that we rely on for the summer is abysmally low. Statewide, we should be at 50% of our peak snowpack by now, but we're lagging at 42%.
If you were planning on hitting Kelly Canyon or heading up toward Targhee this weekend, you’ve probably noticed the base isn't exactly where it should be for mid-January.
The Daily Breakdown (Roughly)
- Jan 16-19: Sunny and dry. Highs: 35°F - 37°F. Lows: 15°F - 19°F. Perfect for a walk around the Greenbelt, as long as you watch for the ice patches that never melt in the shade.
- Jan 20-21: Clouds move in. It’ll feel "grayer," but the temps stay steady in the high 30s.
- Jan 22-24: The "Active" window. We’re looking at a 20% chance of snow showers and that weird rain-snow mix on Thursday. Highs will actually peak at 40°F before settling back to 39°F on Saturday.
Why Does This Keep Happening?
A lot of folks are pointing at La Niña. Typically, La Niña is supposed to bring us cooler temps and more snow in the Pacific Northwest. But 2026 is proving to be one of those "warm and wet" years where the moisture arrives but the cold stays locked up north.
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It’s frustrating. You want the snow for the mountains, but you don't necessarily want to shovel your driveway for the fourth time in a week. Right now, Idaho Falls is getting the "easy" version of winter, but the long-term impacts on our water levels might make for a very dry July.
Survival Tips for an Idaho Falls January
Since the 10 day weather forecast for idaho falls idaho is staying relatively mild, you might be tempted to let your guard down. Don't.
- Black Ice is the Real Enemy: With daytime highs at 38°F and nighttime lows at 18°F, the "melt-freeze" cycle is in full swing. The roads look wet, but they are actually glass.
- Humidifiers are Mandatory: Even with the rain/snow mix coming, the humidity is still swinging wildly. If you don't want to wake up feeling like a piece of beef jerky, keep that humidifier humming.
- Layers, Always: Because we have zero cloud cover for the first half of the forecast, the sun will feel warm, but the wind chill (currently feels like 29°F) will bite the second you step into the shade.
Honestly, enjoy the sun while it lasts. If the patterns from previous "warm" Januaries hold, we might be in for a very white and very messy February to make up for the lost time.
Keep an eye on the Thursday/Friday (Jan 22-23) window. That’s when the "gentle" part of this forecast ends and the messy, slushy reality of an Idaho winter transition begins.
Stay warm, keep the ice melt handy for your sidewalk, and maybe do a little snow dance if you’re a skier—we definitely need it.