You’ve seen the charts. You’ve probably already checked your phone twice this morning. But honestly, the 10 day forecast for tennessee is rarely as simple as a single icon of a sun or a snowflake suggests. If you’re living anywhere from the muddy banks of the Mississippi in Memphis to the high peaks of the Smokies, you know our weather has a mind of its own. Right now, as of Saturday, January 17, 2026, we are staring down a stretch of weather that basically defines the phrase "Tennessee transition."
One minute you’re walking out the door in a light jacket because it’s 47°F, and the next, you're wondering if that 21°F low tonight is going to burst your pipes.
It’s a weird time.
The data doesn't lie, even if it feels like it's teasing us. We are currently sitting in a pattern where the "feels like" temperature is hanging around 40°F thanks to some persistent west winds at 13 mph. It’s mostly cloudy, kinda gloomy, and has that specific bite in the air that says winter isn't anywhere near done with us yet.
The Next Week: A Rollercoaster of Degrees
If you’re looking at the 10 day forecast for tennessee to plan a hike or just a grocery run, you need to prepare for a serious dip before the next climb.
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Tomorrow, Sunday, January 18, is going to be gorgeous—if you consider 37°F and full sun "gorgeous." It’s going to be one of those crisp, bright days where the sun looks warm through the window, but the air outside hits you like a frozen towel. By Monday, we’re actually dropping even further. We’re looking at a high of only 38°F and a low that could bottom out at a bone-chilling 13°F.
Thirteen degrees. That’s not "chilly." That’s "stay inside and drink coffee" weather.
A Breakdown of the Daily Shifts
- Tuesday, Jan 20: Still sunny, still cold. High of 38°F, low of 14°F. Basically a carbon copy of Monday, just slightly less "ice-box" vibes.
- Wednesday, Jan 21: This is where things get messy. We jump up to 49°F, but it comes with light rain during the day and a "rain and snow" mix at night. Classic Tennessee. The humidity is going to hover around 43%, and the wind flips to come from the south at 13 mph.
- Thursday, Jan 22: Back to sun. High of 46°F. It’s a brief reprieve from the moisture.
- Friday, Jan 23: Warming up a bit more. 51°F with some clouds.
The real "fun" starts as we hit next weekend. Saturday, January 24, is currently projected to hit a high of 56°F. You’ll think spring is coming early. You’ll be wrong. By that night, there’s a 65% chance of rain, leading into a Sunday that’s messy, wet, and back down to a high of 51°F with a 40% chance of precipitation.
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What’s Actually Happening with the Snow?
Everyone asks the same thing: "When is it going to snow for real?"
The 10 day forecast for tennessee shows a 75% chance of rain on Monday, January 26, which transitions into a 35% chance of snow that night as the temperature drops to 23°F. It’s that typical Tennessee heartbreak where the moisture usually leaves right before the air gets cold enough to turn it into a winter wonderland. However, that Monday night into Tuesday morning looks like the best bet for seeing some white on the ground, provided the southwest winds don't dry us out too fast.
The La Niña Factor in 2026
We can’t talk about the long-range outlook without mentioning the elephant in the room: the ENSO-neutral transition. According to recent National Weather Service insights, La Niña is hanging on by a thread this winter. For us in the Tennessee Valley, that usually means we’re stuck right on the dividing line.
One week we’re getting warm, moist air from the Gulf, and the next, a "Polar Vortex" lite sends Arctic air screaming down the Cumberland Plateau. It’s why our forecast looks like a heartbeat monitor—up, down, up, down.
Actionable Steps for the Next 10 Days
- Drip the faucets Monday night: With a projected low of 13°F on January 19, those exterior-wall pipes are at risk. Don't risk a flood.
- Watch the Monday (Jan 26) transition: If you have a commute, that rain-to-snow flip on the 26th is the most likely time for black ice. Tennessee drivers aren't exactly known for their "ice skills," so maybe just stay home if you can.
- Layer up for Wednesday: The 49°F high is deceptive because the "rain and snow" mix at night will make the dampness seep right through a single heavy coat. Use a waterproof outer layer.
- Check your livestock/pets: The swing from 56°F on Saturday to a freezing mix by Sunday night is the kind of volatility that’s hard on animals. Make sure they have dry bedding before the rain hits Saturday evening.
The bottom line is that while the 10 day forecast for tennessee shows some warmth mid-week, the cold is still the dominant player. Keep the scraper in the car and the heavy blankets on the bed. You’re going to need them.