Money moves. Sometimes it crawls, but right now, it’s sprinting. If you're looking at 1 us dollar to kazakh tenge today, you’ve probably noticed the numbers look a bit different than they did even a few weeks ago. As of mid-January 2026, the rate is hovering around 511-512 KZT, a sharp jump from the 505 levels we saw at the start of the year.
It's a lot to keep track of. One day you’re getting a decent deal on an import, and the next, your purchasing power feels like it just took a hit.
Honestly, the tenge is in a weird spot. On one hand, Kazakhstan's economy is actually growing—the World Bank is still betting on a 4.5% GDP growth for 2026. On the other hand, the currency is facing some serious "structural pressure," as the analysts over at Halyk Finance like to put it.
The Tug-of-War Over the Tenge
Why is 1 us dollar to kazakh tenge so volatile right now? It basically comes down to a giant game of supply and demand being played by the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) and global oil markets.
In December, the tenge actually looked strong. It strengthened by about 3.7% over the course of 2025, ending the year at 505.73. People were feeling optimistic. But that strength was fueled by some temporary "non-transparent" sources—basically, the government was pumping a lot of foreign currency into the market to keep things stable.
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Now, those taps are being tightened.
Less Oil Money, More Problems
Kazakhstan depends on oil. When oil prices dip or even just stay flat, the tenge feels the heat. For 2026, the government is planning to slash budget transfers from the National Fund. We’re talking about a drop from over $10 billion in 2025 to just about $5.4 billion this year.
When there are fewer dollars being sold into the local market by the government, the price of the dollar goes up. It’s basic math, but it hurts your wallet.
The Interest Rate Trap
The National Bank is currently holding the base rate at a staggering 18%. That is incredibly high. They're doing this to fight inflation, which is expected to stay around 9-10% this year.
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High interest rates usually make a currency more attractive to investors because they can get a better return on tenge-denominated assets. But there’s a catch. If inflation stays high—and with the VAT tax hike from 12% to 16% that just kicked in this January—the "real" value of those returns starts to vanish.
What the Experts are Actually Saying
If you listen to the big banks, the outlook for 1 us dollar to kazakh tenge is a bit of a mixed bag.
- Eurasian Development Bank (EDB): They’re predicting an average rate of 535 KZT for the full year of 2026. They think the high interest rates will eventually stabilize things, but only after some initial weakening.
- Aidarkhan Kusainov (Economist): He’s the guy everyone talks about because he’s been saying the tenge is overvalued for years. He’s warned that if the National Fund support ever truly stops, we could see the rate fly toward 800 or even 1,000.
- National Bank of Kazakhstan: They’re sticking to their "floating exchange rate" guns. They say they won't intervene unless things get crazy (excessive volatility), but they're already planning to sell about $2.2 billion in foreign currency this first quarter just to keep the wheels from falling off.
Real World Impact: Is it a Good Time to Exchange?
If you're a traveler or a business owner, the timing of your exchange matters more than ever.
Suppose you're looking at a $1,000 transaction. At the 505 rate from last month, that was 505,000 Tenge. At today’s 512 rate, it’s 512,000 Tenge. That’s a 7,000 Tenge difference on a relatively small amount. For large-scale imports, those margins can make or break a profit forecast.
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The "mirroring operations" the NBK is doing—where they sell dollars to soak up excess tenge—are the only thing keeping the rate from hitting 520 or 530 right now.
Looking Ahead: What to Watch
Don't just look at the ticker. If you want to know where 1 us dollar to kazakh tenge is headed, keep an eye on these three things over the next few months:
- January 23rd Interest Rate Decision: The NBK meets soon. If they hike the rate to 19% or 20% (as some analysts at ING suggest might happen), the tenge might claw back some ground.
- Gold Prices: Kazakhstan is a major gold producer. Since the NBK buys local gold with tenge and sells it for dollars, high global gold prices give them more "ammo" to support the currency.
- VAT Inflation: Watch the price of milk and bread in Almaty or Astana. If the new 16% VAT sends prices skyrocketing, the National Bank will have no choice but to keep the tenge expensive to try and lower the cost of imports.
Basically, the era of the "cheap" dollar in Kazakhstan is over. We are entering a period of "gradual weakening," and 512 might look like a bargain by the time summer rolls around.
Actionable Steps for Managing Your Money
- Hedge Your Bets: If you have large expenses coming up in USD later this year, it might be worth converting some tenge now while the rate is still under the 535 EDB forecast.
- Watch the Transfers: Pay attention to the National Fund announcements. If the government announces another "emergency transfer" to the budget, expect a temporary tenge rally.
- Diversify: Don't keep all your liquid savings in tenge. Even with 18% interest rates in local banks, the currency's depreciation can eat those gains fast. A 50/50 split between KZT and USD/EUR is a common strategy for local pros right now.
Keep an eye on the Friday afternoon trading sessions on the KASE (Kazakhstan Stock Exchange). That’s usually when you see the most "true" market sentiment before the weekend.